Bitcoin at risk of dropping under $96,000 as U.S.-Iran rhetoric pressures risk assets

Bitcoin held above a key level on Thursday after a sharp rally earlier in the week, even as broader financial markets turned cautious and gains across crypto began to cool.

The largest cryptocurrency traded near $96,200, up about 1% over the past 24 hours and roughly 6% over the past week. Ether hovered around $3,300, posting smaller gains after rallying alongside bitcoin in recent sessions.

The move came as risk sentiment outside crypto softened. Oil prices fell for the first time in six days after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled he may delay military action against Iran, easing immediate geopolitical tensions.

Precious metals slipped from record highs, Asian equities edged lower, and U.S. stock-index futures dipped as investors rotated out of technology shares.

Despite the mixed macro backdrop, crypto prices had already jumped earlier in the day. Total crypto market value rose nearly 5% to about $3.25 trillion, pushing prices to their strongest levels in months before momentum eased.

Sentiment indicators reflected the shift. The crypto market sentiment index climbed to 48, its highest level since late October, suggesting traders have grown more comfortable taking risk after a cautious end to 2025.

Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said bitcoin’s recent move has improved the technical setup: “Technically, bitcoin has cleared a series of important hurdles and now has room to move toward the $100,000 to $106,000 zone,” he said.

Still, price action on Thursday suggested consolidation rather than a fresh leg higher. While bitcoin and ether held onto gains, performance across other large tokens was mixed. Solana and BNB were firmer, but XRP fell about 3% over 24 hours, while dogecoin dropped more than 3%, lagging the broader market.

That divergence often signals a pause after a fast move higher. Strong, sustained rallies typically see broad participation across majors and higher-beta tokens, while uneven performance points to traders locking in gains and waiting for the next catalyst.

Stablecoins remained steady, with tether and USDC holding close to their dollar pegs, suggesting no signs of market stress or forced selling.

With upcoming U.S. economic data unlikely to shift expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut before midyear, traders are watching whether bitcoin can continue to hold above $95,000 despite softer equity markets.

For now, the market appears to be digesting recent gains. A clean break higher would require renewed buying across a wider set of tokens, while continued weakness in laggards like XRP and dogecoin would reinforce the view that crypto’s latest rally is taking a breather rather than accelerating.