Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$80K New Year: Derive
Market positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026, Derive's Forster said.
- Bitcoin traders are preparing for a potential price drop below $80,000 in the new year, according to Derive's Nick Forster.
- The bottom may not be in, Forster added.
Bitcoin traders are increasingly taking defensive positions, bracing for a potential price drop below $80,000 in the new year.
"Skew’s sharp step lower shows traders stacking puts, especially into the December 26 expiry, where open interest has concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes," Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, said in a market note.
"That positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026," he added.
As of writing, BTC changed hands near $87,000, representing a 30% decline from the record high of over $126,000 hit on Oct. 8, according to CoinDesk data.
Forster said that the downtrend may not be over and market participants are pricing a volatile December. "I don’t believe the bottom is in. Short-dated volatility now sits above long-dated BTC volatility, signaling that the market expects outsized swings as we head into the new year," Forster said.
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Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
Why it matters:
Binance remains crypto’s leading exchange, expanding from spot and derivatives into RWAs, payments, savings, yield, and broader financial services.
