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Bitcoin Traders Bet on Sub-$80K New Year: Derive
Market positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026, Derive's Forster said.
Updated Dec 2, 2025, 1:43 p.m. Published Dec 2, 2025, 4:07 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin traders are preparing for a potential price drop below $80,000 in the new year, according to Derive's Nick Forster.
- The bottom may not be in, Forster added.
Bitcoin traders are increasingly taking defensive positions, bracing for a potential price drop below $80,000 in the new year.
"Skew’s sharp step lower shows traders stacking puts, especially into the December 26 expiry, where open interest has concentrated at the $84K and $80K strikes," Nick Forster, co-founder of Derive, said in a market note.
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"That positioning implies a meaningful probability of sub-$80K BTC to start 2026," he added.
As of writing, BTC changed hands near $87,000, representing a 30% decline from the record high of over $126,000 hit on Oct. 8, according to CoinDesk data.
Forster said that the downtrend may not be over and market participants are pricing a volatile December. "I don’t believe the bottom is in. Short-dated volatility now sits above long-dated BTC volatility, signaling that the market expects outsized swings as we head into the new year," Forster said.
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