Bitcoin Dip in 2026, Surge in 2028: JPMorgan’s IBIT-Linked Structured Note Fits Halving Cycles

If you believe in bitcoin's BTC$91,317.81 classic four-year cycle of dips followed by surges, JPMorgan Chase’s proposed structured note tied to the cryptocurrency could be an ideal fit for your portfolio.

The new product, filed with the regulators this week, according to Bloomberg, offers investors a chance at potentially “uncapped” returns if BTC's price remains below a certain level in 2026 but rallies strongly by the end of 2028.

This setup fits neatly with BTC's historically observed four-year cycle, where the cryptocurrency typically slips into a prolonged bear market approximately two years after a halving event, followed by a renewed bull run in the halving year and the year after. Since the most recent halving took place in 2024, bitcoin is expected to face a downtrend in 2026 followed by a renewed surge in the next halving year, that is, 2028.

This structured note comes at a time when institutional players from Wall Street are seeking package crypto exposure, nuanced, strategic bets to ride BTC's roller-coaster trends.

Here is how the product works: if BlackRock' spot bitcoin ETF, IBIT, tied to the note hits or exceeds the bank's preset price by the end of 2026, JPMorgan will redeem the note by paying investors a guaranteed minimum return of 16%.

However, if IBIT stays below the set price by the end of next year, the note will remain valid until 2028, giving investors exposure to potential amplified gains. Investors, therefore, stand to earn 1.5 times their original investment with no upper limit if the ETF surpasses JPMorgan Chase’s 2028-end set price. This means that should BTC rally strongly over that period, the potential returns could be substantial.

The product also offers downside protection, allowing investors to recover their initial investment in 2028 as long as the IBIT ETF doesn’t decline more than 30% that year. However, should the ETF fall further, losses will correspond directly to the size of the drop, exposing note holders to downside risk beyond that threshold.

"The notes do not guarantee any return of principal. If the notes have not been automatically called and the Final Value is less than the Barrier Amount [30%], you will lose 1% of the principal amount of your notes for every 1% that the Final Value is less than the Initial Value," JPMorgan said, explaining the risk profile.

Accordingly, under these circumstances, you will lose more than 40.00% of your principal amount at maturity and could lose all of your principal amount at maturity," JPMorgan added.