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Coinbase 'Negative Premium' at Widest Level since Q1, Signalling Weak U.S. Demand
Bitcoin is on track for its worst weekly performance since March, while U.S. demand indicators weaken as the Coinbase premium declines and spot ETFs reach a record volume.
Nov 22, 2025, 3:51 p.m.
What to know:
- Coinbase’s bitcoin Premium Index hit a -0.15% divergence, its widest discount to global markets since Q1, signalling persistent U.S. institutional caution.
- Spot bitcoin ETFs saw $238.4 million of inflows and a record $11.5 billion in trading volume on Friday, hinting at potential capitulation after a 36% market correction.
- Bitcoin is heading for its worst week since March with an 11% slide.
The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index, which measures the price gap between bitcoin on Coinbase and the global market average, has fallen to a negative divergence of -0.15%, the widest since Q1 this year.
A negative reading of the index means bitcoin is trading cheaper on Coinbase, signalling weakness in U.S. demand, selling pressure and waning institutional appetite. This trend began after the crypto liquidation event on Oct. 10 and has persisted throughout November.
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The move comes as bitcoin is on track for its worst week since early March, having fallen more than 11% and briefly dipped below $81,000 before stabilizing at around $84,000. November has also delivered steep losses, with bitcoin currently down 23%, marking its worst monthly performance since June 2022, when it dropped 38%.
Capitulation event?
This shift in market sentiment is also visible in U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, which have seen persistent outflows for most of November.
Read more: Bitcoin ETFs Have Bled a Record $3.79B in November
However, Friday broke that streak with $238.4 million of inflows, the largest since Nov. 11, according to Farside data. It was also a record volume day, with the ETFs collectively trading $11.5 billion according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $8 billion of that total.
Balchunas also noted that IBIT saw a record week for put volume, indicating that "this is one thing that may help people stay the course, they can always buy some puts as a hedge while they stay long."
Given bitcoin’s 36% drawdown from its October all-time high, Friday may represent a high-volume capitulation event, often observed at local price bottoms. While it's not guaranteed, the events may be signaling BTC's potential attempt to stabilize in the low $80,000 range.
Glassnode data shows more than $4 billion in realized bitcoin losses on Friday, the highest level since March 2023 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, another potential capitulation data point.
Read more: Bitcoin Sell-Off Led by Mid-Cycle Wallets While Long-Term Whales Hold Firm: VanEck
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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