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Fed December Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 30%
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased significantly, now standing at 30%.
Updated Nov 20, 2025, 1:11 p.m. Published Nov 20, 2025, 7:25 a.m.
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What to know:
- The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased significantly, now standing at 30%.
- The Labor Department will not release October jobs data due to the government shutdown, complicating policy decisions.
- Minutes from the October Fed meeting reveal divisions among policymakers on whether to pause or cut rates.
The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75% has fallen to 30%, down from 50% both a day and a week ago, and sharply from 98% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
The conviction has evaporated amid concerns over a prolonged data blackout, making it increasingly difficult for policymakers to make an informed decision. On Wednesday, the Labor Department confirmed that it wouldn't release the jobs data for October, citing the record-length the recently concluded government shutdown.
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At the same time, minutes of the October Fed meeting released Wednesday showed deep fissures over whether to pause or cut rates.
Bitcoin changed hands at $91,700 at press time, up 0.8% on a 24-hour basis.
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