Bitcoin Market Watch: Nvidia Earnings, Fed Minutes and Payrolls to Set the Tone

As bitcoin BTC$90,925.43, ether ETH$3,122.79, XRP$2.0708, and other tokens look to stabilize after recent weakness, market focus shifts to impending crucial events and data releases, including Nvidia's earnings report, the Federal Reserve’s October meeting minutes, and the pivotal but delayed September U.S. jobs report.

These key data points and events could set the tone for the next market moves across both stocks and cryptocurrencies. Let’s take a closer look at what to expect.

NVDA matters

Nasdaq-listed chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report its third quarter earnings during Wednesday's after market hours. According to Market Pulse, Wall Street expects Q3 revenue of $54.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $1.25. The AI chipmaker is currently valued at about $4.42 trillion.

Bulls will closely watch for cues on deliveries of new GPU architecture Blackwell, exposure to China and guidance for the fourth quarter, hoping that the AI bullish theme remains intact into the year-end.

Normally, corporate earnings reports have limited impact on the crypto market, but Nvidia is a different story as its the world's largest publicly listed firm by market value and is bellwether for all things artificial intelligence (AI).

It's GPUs play a pivotal role in AI training as well as blockchain technology, which makes it central to the AI-led bull run in stocks and crypto since 2023. It's recent partnership with Anthropic includes a $30 billion compute deal with Microsoft that will run on NVIDIA’s newest Grace Blackwell and Vera Rubin systems, underscoring NVIDIA’s continued dominance in AI infrastructure.

Strong earnings by NVDA could revive the uptrend in all things AI, potentially recharging crypto bulls' engines.

Note that AI-related stocks, including NVDA, and cryptocurrencies have recently experienced correction.

NVIDIA shares were up almost 50% for the year at the end of October, briefly pushing the company above a $5 trillion market value, the first in history to do so. The stock is now up 31% year to date at $181 per share. Market jitters have emerged since late October, with the Nasdaq 100 down over 6% from its late October all-time high.

BTC has dropped by over 25% to $90,000 since peaking above $126,000 on Oct. 8, CoinDesk data show. The combination of a lack of economic data, policy uncertainty and the government shutdown weighed on bitcoin in recent weeks.

FOMC Minutes

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's October Fed meeting, where the central bank cut rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75% to 4.00%, are due at 19:00 GMT Wednesday.

Market participants will be looking for clues on the degree of divide at the central bank over the need for more easing in the coming months and possibility of another cut in December.

Recently, odds of a 25 basis point cut in December have dropped sharply to nearluy coin toss levels. As of writing, Polymarket and the CME FedWatch tool imply that a hold is only slightly ahead of a 25 basis point cut.

The October meeting took place during the longest U.S. government shutdown on record, which delayed key data releases, adding to policy uncertainty. The government, however, has reopened operations, which makes the impending Dec. 9-10 meeting pivotal. This meeting will include fresh Summary of Economic Projections and a new interest rate "dot plot".

Key Jobs Data

On Thursday, the September nonfarm payrolls report, delayed by the government shutdown, will hit the wires, offering cues on the labor market health.

Nonfarm payrolls for September 2025 are forecasted to show an increase of about 50,000 jobs, marking a slight improvement from the 22,000 jobs added in August, according to FactSet. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.3%. While the September gain would be better than August, it still falls short of the roughly 100,000 jobs per month pace observed at the start of the year.

A weak data could revive Fed rate cut bets, inviting a bounce in risk assets, including BTC.