Dogecoin ETF Could Go Live in U.S. Soon, but DOGE Technicals Draw Bearish Picture for Now

Dogecoin slipped for a second straight session as heavy whale distribution and technical weakness overshadowed optimism surrounding Bitwise’s expected spot DOGE ETF launch within 20 days.

News Background

Bitwise Asset Management confirmed that its spot Dogecoin ETF may launch within 20 days under the Section 8(a) automatic-approval rule, pending no SEC intervention. The move follows last week’s debut of SOL, LTC, and HBAR ETFs on Wall Street and signals accelerating institutional product development across the meme-coin segment.

Grayscale also amended its own spot DOGE ETF filing, initiating a similar countdown period. The parallel efforts underscore how regulators’ passive stance under Section 8(a) could fast-track listings even without explicit SEC endorsement.

Despite the broader optimism, DOGE’s price action decoupled sharply from the ETF narrative as large holders liquidated positions into strength. On-chain data recorded over 1 billion DOGE (~$440 million) moved by whale wallets in the past 72 hours—aligning with the heaviest distribution week since early October.

Price Action Summary

DOGE fell 2.4% to $0.1634 over the 24-hour session, breaking below $0.167 support amid accelerating selloffs. The token traded through a 6.4% intraday range, establishing sequential lower highs during the first 16 hours of trading.

The sharpest drop hit at 15:00 GMT, when volume surged to 793.4 million tokens—roughly 150% above average—driving DOGE to its session low at $0.1590. Multiple rebound attempts failed at $0.1639 resistance, confirming persistent supply overhead.

Late trading brought stabilization as DOGE rebounded from $0.1615 to close near $0.1631, with final-hour activity averaging 6.2 million tokens per minute—slightly above the norm and signaling measured re-entry from institutional participants.

Technical Analysis

The session produced a textbook breakdown-and-retest pattern, confirming short-term bearish control while hinting at possible base formation. Descending highs from the open validated resistance near $0.1674, while the late-session higher lows at $0.1615–$0.1625 established the early framework for a potential reversal.

Momentum indicators remain mixed. RSI recovered from near-oversold territory (38–42 band), and MACD flattening suggests decelerating downside momentum. However, with aggregate futures open interest declining 12% and funding rates flipping negative on Binance, speculative appetite remains subdued.

The volume profile supports a transition phase—heavy distribution early followed by measured accumulation late in the session. This structure often precedes short-term consolidation before volatility compresses ahead of a decisive breakout.

What Traders Should Know

Traders now focus on whether DOGE can defend $0.1575–$0.1615 support while ETF-driven sentiment builds. The ETF countdown could act as a volatility catalyst, but technicals remain fragile until price closes above $0.1674.

If bulls reclaim that level, short-term upside targets align with $0.172–$0.180, coinciding with pre-breakdown supply. Conversely, failure to hold $0.1575 risks exposing the $0.15 psychological zone, where on-chain cost basis data clusters.

The interplay between ETF headlines and whale flows will likely dictate near-term direction: sustained outflows from large holders could cap any ETF-driven optimism through mid-November.