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Gold Tests Key Resistance Level That Could Signal the Next Bullish Phase
Bitcoin is now just 7% of gold’s total market value as it nears a $2 trillion market cap.
Updated Oct 17, 2025, 10:53 a.m. Published Oct 17, 2025, 10:31 a.m.
What to know:
- Gold is up over 60% year-to-date, surpassing $4,340 an ounce and outperforming both the M2 money supply and Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin approaches a $2 trillion market cap and its 365 day moving average at $100,000.
- Bitcoin is 40% below its gold-denominated all-time high.
Gold, the world’s first-ever $30 trillion asset, has exceeded expectations in 2025, rising more than 60% year-to-date to trading at approximately $4,340 per ounce.
One way to assess gold’s strength is by measuring its performance relative to the M2 money supply. (M2 refers to a broad measure of money in circulation, including cash, checking deposits, savings accounts).
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Since its 2022 bottom, gold has gained roughly 150% against M2. However, it is now approaching historically significant levels last seen during the peaks of 2011 and 1974. This could suggest that the current rally is nearing a top.
On the other hand, it may also indicate that the bull market has much further to run. For example, during the 1970's stagflationary cycle, gold surged an additional 180% against the M2 money supply before reaching its ultimate peak.
Gold vs Bitcoin Performance
Gold’s outperformance extends beyond the money supply. The gold/bitcoin ratio is now up around 50% year-to-date.
Bitcoin is now priced at approximately 24 ounces per BTC, around 40% below its all-time high set in December 2024. Additionally, bitcoin’s total market capitalization now represents about 7% of gold’s total market value.
Bitcoin is approaching a market cap of $2 trillion, which corresponds to a price level of roughly $100,000. This price also aligns closely with its 365-day moving average (365DMA).
The 365DMA calculates the average closing price of an asset over the previous 365 days, helping to identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance levels.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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