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Risks Ahead for Crypto in Q4 Even With Macro Tailwinds: Grayscale
The firm's analysts said Fed rate cuts and regulatory momentum support digital assets, though slowing growth and political roadblocks could weigh on valuations.
Oct 1, 2025, 2:21 p.m.
What to know:
- Grayscale said Fed rate cuts support risk assets like bitcoin, but warned that slowing GDP growth, geopolitical tensions or a surprise policy reversal could pressure valuations.
- Analysts pointed to potential staking-enabled ETPs, new altcoin products and Senate action on a market structure bill as possible tailwinds for adoption.
- Much of the optimism is already priced in, meaning delays or setbacks on policy or product approvals could act as downside risks for crypto markets, the report warned.
The current crypto bull market has been powered by a combination of macro demand for scarce digital assets and growing regulatory clarity, two forces that are expected to continue to shape investor focus in the final quarter of 2025, asset manager Grayscale said in a report Wednesday.
According to Grayscale, the Federal Reserve’s decision to resume rate cuts in September, and its signal that one or two additional cuts could follow before year-end, should generally be considered supportive for digital assets.
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Lower borrowing costs, Grayscale noted, reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing commodities such as bitcoin and can encourage broader risk appetite across markets.
At the same time, the analysts cautioned that a slowing economy or escalating geopolitical risks could dampen valuations. They also highlighted the possibility that an unexpected Fed pivot back to rate hikes would pose a clear downside risk.
On the regulatory side, Grayscale pointed to several potential catalysts that could continue to draw investor attention. These include the introduction of staking within crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs), the approval of new altcoin-based ETPs, and the potential passage of a market structure bill in the Senate.
While each of these developments would represent meaningful progress, Grayscale warned that markets have already priced in a fair amount of optimism.
Any setbacks, whether delays, political pushback, or outright rejection, could weigh on valuations, the report added.
Read more: Crypto's Value Lies in Trillion-Dollar Markets, Bitwise Says
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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