Bitcoin Surges Above $114K as Traders Look Ahead to 'Uptober'

A sharp rally which began late in the weekend continued into U.S. Monday morning trading hours, with bitcoin BTC$89,898.89 re-taking the $114,000 after having tumbled below $109,000 last Friday.

The move suggests crypto traders are responding to the same macroeconomic factors — namely lower interest rates across the West — that's been driving gold and many stock indexes to new record highs on nearly a daily basis. It also suggests a seasonal factor, with investors shifting focus from historical September weakness to October — sometimes dubbed "Uptober" due to the tendency for price to rise.

Bitcoin and other major cryptos — ETH, XRP and SOL among them — are all ahead by roughly 4% over the past 24 hours. Gold is ahead 1.2%, touching yet another record high above $3,850 per ounce and the Nasdaq is higher by 0.8%.

Among crypto-related stocks, Coinbase (COIN) and stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) up 5.7% and 7.7%, respectively.

Particularly hard hit during last week's carnage, miners are seeing a sizable bounce. Artificial intelligence and high performance computing focused stocks such as IREN (IREN) and Cipher Mining (CIFR) are both up 4%. MARA Holdings (MARA) — with a greater emphasis on pure bitcoin mining and stacking — is ahead 8%.

The small bounce is not surprising, said Paul Howard, senior director at trading firm Wincent, despite the macro environment being a little uncertain.

"We have seen institutional and retail support at $110,000 from those that missed BTC at the $100,000 level," he said in a note. "There is still downside risk until we see a bigger macro move the coming month."

Friday’s jobs report could offer traders a clearer view of the labor market, but a looming government shutdown threatens to delay the release. If the shutdown drags on, the Federal Reserve may be forced to hold its next policy meeting on Oct. 28–29 without access to critical economic data.

October could bring relief for crypto markets

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, said that seasonality "is about to turn sharply in bitcoin’s favor," as the typically weak September is giving way to bitcoin's strongest months historically.

BTC posted a 22% average return in October since 2013, with November producing even stronger gains of 46% through the same period, he noted.

"Against the backdrop of a landmark year for crypto — marked by significant advances in adoption and regulation — these seasonal tailwinds could set the stage for bitcoin to challenge and even surpass previous record highs before year-end," Kruger said.