Share this article
Analyst Predicts ‘Uptober’ Rally for Bitcoin Regardless of Fed’s FOMC Decision
Two prominent crypto analysts point to bitcoin’s lag versus gold and the S&P 500 as well as the "Uptober" trend as reasons to be bullish on BTC.
Updated Sep 17, 2025, 3:11 p.m. Published Sep 17, 2025, 2:59 p.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin traded at $116,236 on Sept. 17, holding support above $116,000 after touching a high near $117,317 earlier in the day.
- Dean Crypto Trades said bitcoin has compressed more than gold and the S&P 500 since the post-election rally, making it likely to lead the next larger move.
- Lark Davis said every September FOMC since 2020 — except in 2022 — has preceded strong bitcoin gains, reinforcing the seasonal “Uptober” trend.
Bitcoin traded at $116,236 as of 14:04 UTC on Sept. 17, up about 1% in the past 24 hours, holding above a key level as markets await the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement.
Analysts' comments
Dean Crypto Trades noted on X that bitcoin is only about 7% above its post-election local peak, while the S&P 500 has risen 9% and gold has surged 36% during the same period. He said bitcoin has compressed more than those assets, making it likely to lead the next larger move, though it could form a “lower high” before extending further. He added that ether could join in once it breaks $5,000 and enters price discovery.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Lark Davis pointed to bitcoin’s history around September FOMC meetings, saying every September decision since 2020 — except during the 2022 bear market — has preceded a strong rally. He stressed that the pattern is less about the Fed’s rate choice itself and more about seasonal dynamics, arguing that bitcoin tends to thrive in this period heading into “Uptober.”
CoinDesk Research's technical analysis
According to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis data model, bitcoin rose about 0.9% during the Sept. 16–17 analysis window, climbing from $115,461 to $116,520. BTC reached a session high of $117,317 at 07:00 UTC on Sept. 17 before consolidating.
Following that peak, bitcoin tested the $116,400–$116,600 range multiple times, confirming it as a short-term support zone. In the final hour of the session, between 11:39 and 12:38 UTC, BTC attempted a breakout: prices moved narrowly between $116,351 and $116,376 before spiking to $116,551 at 12:34 on higher volume. This confirmed a consolidation-breakout pattern, though the gains were modest.
Overall, bitcoin remains firm above $116,000, with support around $116,400 and resistance near $117,300.
Latest 24-hour and one-month chart analysis
The latest 24-hour CoinDesk Data chart, ending 14:04 UTC on Sept. 17, shows BTC at $116,236 after retreating from intraday highs near $117,295. The price has consolidated in the $116,000–$116,500 band, underscoring short-term support.
The one-month chart shows bitcoin climbing from lows near $108,000 in late August to recent highs above $117,000. The trend remains upward, though the past few sessions show consolidation, suggesting the market is pausing before its next move.
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
Plus pour vous
Ce qu'il:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
Plus pour vous
Bitcoin’s Deep Correction Sets Stage for December Rebound, Says K33 Research
K33 Research says market fear is outweighing fundamentals as bitcoin nears key levels. December could offer an entry point for bold investors.
Ce qu'il:
- K33 Research says bitcoin’s steep correction shows signs of bottoming, with December potentially marking a turning point.
- The firm has argued that the market is overreacting to long-term risks while ignoring near-term signals of strength, like low leverage and solid support levels.
- With likely policy shifts ahead and cautious positioning in futures, K33 sees more upside potential than risk of another major collapse.
Top Stories
