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Bitcoin's Historical September Low May Already Be Priced In
Historical monthly patterns suggest early September could mark the bottom before Q4 momentum builds.
Sep 12, 2025, 11:37 a.m.
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What to know:
- Since July 2024, bitcoin has typically formed monthly lows within the first 10 days, with only a few brief deviations.
- Q4 has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, averaging around 85% gains.
Historical data suggests that bitcoin has likely put in its September 2025 low, around $107,000 on the first of the month.
Looking back to July 2024, a consistent pattern emerges where bitcoin tends to form a bottom for the month within the first 10 days of each month.
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The notable exceptions were February, June and August 2025, when the lows came later in the month, but even then, the market experienced a correction within those first 10 days before resuming its broader trend.
Speculatively, the reason bitcoin often puts in its low within the first 10 days of the month could be tied to institutional portfolio rebalancing or the timing of key macroeconomic events that tend to cluster early in the month.
"It’s worth noting that several futures and options markets expire on the final day of the month or the first day of the next, this can lead to short term volatility and a subsequent lull in trading activity as traders either rollover trades or reposition entirely,” said Oliver Knight, deputy managing editor, data and tokens, at CoinDesk.
Of course, past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but as Q4 approaches it is worth noting that this quarter has historically been bitcoin’s strongest, delivering an average return of 85%. October in particular has been especially favorable, with only two losing months since 2013.
