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Bitcoin’s Choppiness Index Continues to Climb, Potential Breakout Looms
Implied volatility sits at multi-year lows while sideways price action hints at further consolidation ahead of key CPI data.
Updated Sep 11, 2025, 3:11 p.m. Published Sep 11, 2025, 10:13 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin’s choppiness index has risen to 54 on the one-month timeframe, a level last seen just before the November 2024 election rally.
- With BTC consolidating between $110,000 and $124,000, continued volatility compression suggests a potential breakout trigger from today’s CPI release at 1:30 PM.
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Bitcoin's continued volatility compression has intensified with what analyst Checkmate refers to as the “choppiness index,” a metric that gauges sideways price consolidation.
Previous CoinDesk research has highlighted that bitcoin’s implied volatility remains at multi-year lows, which supports the sideways consolidation in bitcoin's price.
This choppiness reflects bitcoin’s recent rangebound behavior. For the past few months, bitcoin has traded between $110,000 and its all-time high of $124,000, currently hovering around $113,000.
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On the one-month timeframe, according to checkonchain, the choppiness index has risen to 54. The last time it exceeded this level was in early November 2024, just before President Trump’s election victory triggered a surge in bitcoin to over $90,000. At that point, the index peaked at 64. The previous instance before that was in early 2023, at the onset of the current bull cycle, when the index stood at 57.
This pattern suggests there may still be room for further consolidation, especially as volatility continues to compress.
The next major macroeconomic catalyst is the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for release at 12:30 PM UTC. This could act as a trigger for a volatility breakout or directional price move.
CoinDesk research from February also noted a prolonged period of which similarly preceded the price decline that eventually bottomed out in April around $76,000.
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