Markets Today: Holding Steady for Powell

Bitcoin BTC$89,425.54 held a crucial support level at $112,500 overnight, aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its April to July rally. However, the rebound has been muted so far, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech later Friday.

Last month, the market bounced sharply from this same Fibonacci level, and a similar move could unfold if Powell signals a more dovish stance, hinting at faster and deeper rate cuts. The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, followed by another before year-end.

One analyst examining options data estimates that bitcoin could experience a 2% price swing on Powell’s speech.

A dovish tone from Powell could bring a strong bounce in ether ETH$3,131.11, as the cryptocurrency hovers above its uptrend line connecting April and early August lows.

Derivatives Positioning

• Global futures open interest (OI) in BTC and ETH has increased by 1% in the past 24 hours, suggesting capital is flowing in as prices drop. At least some of these inflows could be bearish bets initiated as hedges against potential hawkish comments from Powell later today.
• SOL, DOGE, LINK, XRP and ADA all registered a decline in open interest, a sign of capital outflows. OI increased significantly in smaller, less-followed coins such as MAT, ULTIMA and LUMIA.
• However, speculative activity has cooled significantly, with volumes across major tokens, excluding BTC, dropping by 20% or more. It appears traders are holding back, waiting for Powell before making their next moves.
• On the CME, OI in standard ether futures remains elevated near 2 million ETH while BTC's tally remains well below July's lows, signaling a lack of investor interest.
• Options on CME, however, are heating up, with ETH open interest rising to $1 billion, the highest this year. BTC's option OI has jumped to $4.44 billion, the most since May.
• BTC options listed on Deribit are suggesting a 2% price swing in the next 24 hours, indicating a slightly above-average volatility around the Jackson Hole event. Volatility has averaged 1.18% over the past 30 days.
• BTC puts continue to trade at a premium to calls, suggesting downside fears. The same is true for ETFs tied to the Nasdaq.
• Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm were mixed, featuring outright calls, put spreads and risk reversal strategies.

Token Talk

• On-chain investigator Dethective uncovered coordinated wallet activity across YZY and LIBRA launches, showing insiders extracted nearly $23 million through early access and pre-seeded trades.
• One wallet bought $250,000 worth of YZY at $0.20 — when most traders paid above $1 — and flipped it for nearly $1 million profit in eight minutes. Funds were then funneled to a “treasury wallet” already tied to LIBRA gains.
• That same wallet benefited from LIBRA’s launch six months earlier, where two addresses used similar tactics to snipe tokens. One made $9 million, another $11.5 million, with both dumping quickly before public buyers could react.
• These wallets appeared only during the YZY and LIBRA launches and invested huge sums instantly, behavior Dethective said was impossible without insider information.
• While speculation has linked the wallets to LIBRA’s founder Hayden Davis, no proof has surfaced. Still, analysts argue “celebrity coins” marketed to fans may in reality be insider extraction schemes, enriching a few at the cost of retail.
• Research by Defioasis found more than 60% of YZY traders lost money. Out of 56,050 wallets trading YZY, most “only buying” wallets may have been fake, while “only selling” wallets were insiders exiting.
• Among those who both bought and sold, 38% profited, but nearly all gains were under $500. Just 406 wallets made more than $10,000, and five cleared over $1 million — mostly linked to insiders. One trader lost over $1 million in a single day.
• Ripple and SBI Holdings announced plans to introduce the RLUSD stablecoin in Japan by Q1 2026, aiming to leverage new digital asset regulations.
• SBI VC Trade, a licensed electronic payment instruments exchange service provider, will distribute RLUSD, according to a memorandum of understanding signed Friday.
• RLUSD, introduced in December 2024, is fully backed by U.S. dollar deposits, short-term Treasuries and cash equivalents, with monthly attestations from a third-party auditor. Ripple says this gives it regulatory clarity and institutional-grade compliance compared to peers.
• SBI CEO Tomohiko Kondo said RLUSD will “expand the option of stablecoins in the Japanese market” and strengthen trust in digital finance. Ripple executives framed it as a bridge between traditional and decentralized finance.
• The initiative is indicative of Ripple and SBI’s deepening partnership in Asia and comes just as Japan approved its first yen-denominated stablecoin earlier this week, signaling a rapidly opening market.