Watch Out Below: Bitcoin’s Weekend Surge Leaves CME Gap

Bitcoin BTC$88,644.86 may find itself fighting gravity after a surge over the weekend took it to within striking distance of its $123,000 all-time high while leaving a gap in the price of CME futures between Friday's closing price and Monday's open.

CME bitcoin futures, cash-settled contracts that track the price of the largest cryptocurrency, settled at $117,430 on Friday, only to open on Monday at $119,000. Historically, bitcoin has shown a tendency to fill these gaps, meaning the price often retraces to cover the difference between the two levels. This can happen within days or even within hours of the gap forming.

“Most previous gaps that were created did close within the same day, but this one moved a bit further than those,” Daan Crypto Trades, a crypto trader and investor, said in a post on X.

Unlike spot markets, which trade around the clock, CME futures operate from Sunday evening through Friday evening for 23 hours a day. Any significant price movement during the one-hour daily pause or over the weekend can create what traders call a CME gap.

Daan noted that bitcoin is now close to price discovery, a market phase that begins when an asset surpasses its previous all-time high and trades in uncharted territory. In such situations, gaps can become “runaway gaps” instances where momentum is so strong that the market continues to trend in the same direction without returning to fill the gap, at least in the short term.

“I’d recommend keeping an eye on this gap,” Daan said. “If price were to close it, it could make for a decent reversal area. But I wouldn’t fully bet on it closing until price gets at least within a one to two percent proximity again, below $120,000 or so.”

Heading into Monday’s U.S. open, traders will be watching closely to see whether the gap begins to close or whether bitcoin’s bullish momentum carries it straight past $123,000 into new all-time highs, potentially leaving the gap behind at least for now.