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Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycles May Be Over as the Asset Matures, K33 Analysts Say
Macroeconomic forces matter more now for BTC than the quadrennial mining reward halvings.
Updated Jul 17, 2025, 3:47 p.m. Published Jul 16, 2025, 9:25 p.m.
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What to know:
- Bitcoin's traditional four-year price cycles may no longer apply as the asset's perceived role evolves, according to K33 Research.
- The impact of mining reward halvings is diminishing, while other macroeconomic forces matter more with widening institutional access and growing sovereign interest, the report said.
- BTC is becoming a "reactionary store of value" amid global tensions and inflationary pressures, the analysts said.
The four-year cycles that have long defined the boom and bust price action of bitcoin could be a thing of the past as the asset is maturing, according to a fresh market note by K33 Research.
Bitcoin reached new all-time highs in the year after the quadrennial mining reward halvings in 2012, 2016 and 2020. The previous two bull runs peaked roughly 1,060 days after the previous cycle bottom. If that pattern held, a peak could occur as soon as mid-October, the note said.
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K33’s analysts, however, no longer expect that playbook to apply as bitcoin as an asset matures.
"The impact of the halvings is materially smaller today than in the past," the note said. In earlier years, halving events created sudden supply shocks that ignited rallies. Now, with regulated, institutional access widening and interest from sovereign entities growing, other macroeconomic forces may matter more that favor a detachment from past cycle patterns, the report said.
"We believe BTC has moved from a speculative reflexive asset to a more established reactionary store of value in a world with tenser global trade and enhanced inflationary pressures," the authors wrote.
Read more: Altcoin Season Returns? Bitcoin Consolidates With ETH, SUI, SEI Among Those Taking Charge
