Bitcoin Bounces to $106K After Iran-Israel Jitters, but Analysts Warn of Deeper Pullback

The crypto market is slightly bouncing back from early Friday’s jitters on escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

After slumping to the $102,600 mark, bitcoin BTC$89,276.83 rebounded to around $106,000 before fading lower in the U.S. afternoon hours with reports about a fresh wave of airstrikes targeting Iran. The top cryptocurrency was down 1.6% in the last 24 hours, changing hands at $105,200 and still less than 6% shy of its all-time high price.

Meanwhile, the CoinDesk 20 — an index of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, excluding memecoins, stablecoins and exchange coins — has lost 4.4% in the same period of time. Tokens such as ether ETH$3,049.78, avalanche AVAX$13.49 and toncoin TON$1.6010 were the hardest hit, slumping between 6% and 8%.

Crypto stocks, however, aren’t doing too hot. Most equities are in the red, especially bitcoin miners MARA Holdings (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT), down 5% and 4% respectively. A notable exception is stablecoin issuer Circle (CIRCL), which is still benefiting from the windfall of its recent IPO; the stock is up 13% today, with news of retail giants Amazon and Walmart reportedly exploring stablecoins adding to the momentum.

Traditional markets don’t seem overwhelmingly concerned by the war. While gold is up 1.3%, potentially gearing up for new all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are only down 0.4% each.

What's next for bitcoin?

"Nice bounce thus far and lack of follow-through lower," well-followed crypto trader Skew said in a Friday X post. Market participants will likely remain cautious through the weekend with BTC tightly correlated with traditional markets amid heightened geopolitical risks, Skew added.

On the longer timeframe, some analysts see risks of a deeper pullback.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen noted that BTC's drop below $106,000 translates to a failed breakout, and traders should wait for more favorable setups before rushing to buy the dip.

He highlighted the $100,000-$101,000 zone as key support, warning that a break below could mark a return to the broader consolidation phase similar to last summer.

John Glover, chief investment officer at bitcoin lender Ledn, argued that bitcoin entered a corrective phase from its record highs that could see the largest digital asset drop to $88,000-$93,000.

He said the $90,000 level could offer a favorable entry for opportunistic investors before BTC resumes its uptrend.

"Once this pattern has played out, the next move higher to the $130,000 area is expected to begin," he said.