Share this article
Bitcoin Bull Market Is Far From Over, Suggests Historical BTC Trend Tied to 200-Week Average
Past trends associated with the 200-week SMA suggests the ongoing range play between $90K and $110K will likely resolve bullishly.
Feb 14, 2025, 7:19 a.m.
Make us preferred on Google
What to know:
- BTC's 200-week SMA remains well short of the price high registered during the 2021 bull market.
- Past data show bull markets tend to peak with the average rising to the record prices established in the prior bull run.
Historical trends tied to a key indicator suggest that bitcoin has plenty of upside left as renewed inflation in the U.S. threatens to challenge the current uptrend.
The 200-week simple moving average (SMA) of bitcoin's price, which smooths out short-term market fluctuations to provide a clearer picture of the overall trend, stood at $44,200 at the time of writing, according to TradingView.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Although this average is at its highest point ever, it is still significantly below the previous bull market's peak of $69,000 in November 2021.
That may be an important point because past data show bull markets end with the 200-week SMA rising to the record prices established in the preceding bull run.
For instance, the previous bull market ended in late 2021 with the 200-week SMA rising to $19,000, the 2017 bull market peak. Similarly, the bull market of 2017 ended in December of that year, with the 200-week SMA rising to the record price of over $1,200 set four years ago.
If past trends hold true, bitcoin's current range between $90,000 and $110,000 will likely resolve bullishly, paving the way for the next upward movement.
The pricing of options on Deribit supports the bullish outlook offered by the 200-week SMA. For example, according to data source Amberdata, options with expirations of three months or longer show that call options are more expensive than put options, indicating a market expectation of rising prices.
Further, most open interest is concentrated in call options at strikes higher than BTC's going market price of $96,700. As of writing, call option at the $120K strike was the most popular, boasting a notional open interest of over $1.8 billion, reflecting bullish expectations. Open interest refers to the number of contracts active or open at a given time.
Más para ti
Small investors are buying bitcoin. For a rally to succeed, the whales need to join in.
Small wallets have increased their BTC holdings by 2.5% since October's all-time high while large holders trimmed 0.8%, Santiment data shows.
Lo que debes saber:
- Bitcoin wallets holding less than 0.1 BTC have increased their share of supply to the highest since mid-2024 even as the price holds around the mid-$60,000s.
- Larger holders with 10 to 10,000 bitcoins — the whales and sharks that typically drive major moves — have reduced their positions since the October peak.
- The divergence supports choppy, fragile price action because retail demand alone cannot sustain rallies when big wallets are distributing into every recovery.
Top Stories
