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Bitcoin Still Following Previous Cycle's Trajectory Despite Price Drop: Van Straten
Despite the U.S. tariff uncertainty, bitcoin remains on track with previous cycles.
Feb 4, 2025, 11:21 a.m.
What to know:
- Bitcoin performance remains on track with previous cycles despite tariff uncertainty.
- Bitcoin has remained range-bound in a channel between $90,000 and $109,000 for the past 2.5 months.
Bitcoin continues to follow the trajectory of its 2017 cycle. Despite recent market turbulence, driven by escalating tariff tensions between the U.S and its neighbouring countries, as well as China.
Bitcoin remains up approximately 525% from its cycle low during the FTX collapse in November 2022. Comparatively, at the same stage in the 2017 cycle, bitcoin had risen 533%.
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While, another method for evaluating bitcoin’s cyclical behavior is by measuring returns from previous all-time highs. The last cycle's market peak occurred in April 2021 at approximately $64,000, although in nominal terms, bitcoin’s all-time high was $69,000 in November 2021.
However, many on-chain indicators suggest that April 2021 marked the cycle’s true top. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable consistency in tracking previous cycles.
In addition, bitcoin has remained range-bound within a $90,000 to $109,000 channel for the past 2.5 months, even amid heightened market volatility. Bitcoin continues to test both the upper and lower bounds of its current trading channel.
Meanwhile, previous CoinDesk research identified $91,000 as a local bottom for bitcoin.
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Japan’s Higher Rates Puts Bitcoin in the Crosshairs of a Yen Carry Unwind
A stronger yen typically coincides with de-risking across macro portfolios, and that dynamic could tighten liquidity conditions that recently helped bitcoin rebound from November’s lows.
O que saber:
- The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to 0.75% at its December meeting, the highest since 1995, affecting global markets including cryptocurrencies.
- A stronger yen could lead to de-risking in macro portfolios, impacting liquidity conditions that have supported bitcoin's recent recovery.
- Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated a high probability of a rate hike, with officials prepared for further tightening if their economic outlook supports it.
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