First Mover Americas: Crypto Market Muted After HBO Satoshi Reveal Falls Flat

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The crypto market was little changed following a hotly awaited HBO documentary that promised to shed new light on the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" identified Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as the cryptocurrency's pseudonymous creator, a claim Todd had denied even before the broadcast. Positive developments in revealing Satoshi's true identity could, in theory, be a volatility-boosting event for crypto markets. However, HBO's attempt, like all previous ones, proved unfruitful. Bitcoin trades at around $62,150, a drop of about 0.45% in the last 24 hours. The broader digital asset market, as measured by the CoinDesk 20 Index, was also little changed.

Spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. recorded a cumulative outflow of over $18 million on Monday, SoSoValue data show. Ether ETFs recorded over $8 million in withdrawals. Low volatility in BTC came after a lack of new measures and announcements of new stimulus at a Chinese briefing on Tuesday pared hopes of a long-drawn stimulus package, which had contributed to a bitcoin run in the past few weeks. Stocks in China are deep in the red, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 3.9% and Shenzhen’s Component Index down 4%. Traders, meanwhile, look toward upcoming notes from the September Federal Reserve meeting for clues on where BTC might move next.

A large bitcoin options trade anticipates a shift from the present low-volatility regime to a period of heightened price swings, potentially exceeding the $53,000-$87,000 range. The trade saw the entity pay a net premium of over $1 million to purchase 100 contracts of the $66,000 strike call and put options expiring on Nov. 29, according to data confirmed by Lin Chen, head of business development Asia at Deribit. A long straddle is preferred when the market is expected to move far enough in either direction to make the call or the put option worth more than the cumulative premium paid. For the strategy to turn profitable and overcompensate for the premium paid, the bitcoin price needs to move either above $87,000 or below $53,000 by the end of November, Chen told CoinDesk.

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• Source: Data for the U.S. Office of Financial Research, Apollo Chief Economist

- Omkar Godbole

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