Bitcoin Price May Turn Lower as Crypto Exchanges See $1B USDT Withdrawal: IntoTheBlock

• Bitcoin started a downtrend soon when USDT exchange outflows surpassed $1 billion earlier this year, "suggesting investors may be adopting a risk-off stance," IntoTheBlock said.
• The current price action "feels eerily similar" to last year's when bitcoin traded sideways for two months after a large capitulation in August, one analyst noted.

Cryptocurrency prices sharply rebounded from last week's turmoil as bitcoin BTC$89,383.27 rebounded to above $60,000 after falling below $50,000 during the Aug. 5 crash. But further upside might be elusive – at least based on one metric that has foreshadowed recent local tops.

Crypto analytics firm IntoTheBlock noted that more than $1 billion of Tether's USDT stablecoin was withdrawn from crypto exchanges on Tuesday, the most in a day since May.

"In recent cases where withdrawals exceeded $1 billion, bitcoin began a downtrend soon after, suggesting investors may be adopting a risk-off stance, moving funds to safer environments like cold wallets in anticipation of market volatility," IntoTheBlock analysts said.

However, there are nuances to interpreting the data. While stablecoin deposits to exchanges are positive, signaling fresh funds arriving to buy assets, withdrawals are not always negative as users might move funds to decentralized finance (DeFi) to earn yield. Notably, yields for providing USDT liquidity in DeFi pools have been trending lower, DefiLlama data shows.

Bitcoin fell to $59,000 during Wednesday U.S. trading session, fully retracing yesterday's surge above $61,000 despite Wednesday's U.S. CPI inflation report reassuring expectations of an interest rate cut in September.

Zooming out, seasonal trends are neither in favor of higher crypto prices. Most of the time during bitcoin's history, August and September brought negative monthly returns, data compiled by CoinGlass shows.

Well-followed crypto analyst Miles Deutscher pointed out that bitcoin's current price action resembles last year's action. Then, BTC tumbled to $24,000 from the top of its range at $30,000 during a large leverage flush in August and traded mostly sideways for two months before commencing a rally in October.

"Retail interest is evaporating fast, apathy amongst existing market participants, lack of clear narratives," he said. "This feels eerily similar to August-October last year."