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Bitcoin Correction May Continue if ETF Inflows Disappoint in Next Few Days: 10x Research
Bitcoin ETF inflows on Monday and Tuesday will be the "real test" for what's next for the largest crypto asset's price, Markus Thielen wrote.
Updated Mar 18, 2024, 4:04 p.m. Published Mar 18, 2024, 4:02 p.m.
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- U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs attracted record inflows last week, but the trend is slowing.
- BTC may drop to as low as $59,000 if ETF inflows fell short of expectations, 10x Research said.
Spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) in the U.S. notched record inflows last week, but weaker demand in the next day or so could trigger the next leg down for bitcoin's price, according to crypto analytics firm 10X Research.
The 10 ETFs combined pulled in $2.6 billion in fresh funds in the five days ended March 15, per data from Farside Investors, but most of the net inflows happened from Monday to Wednesday propelling BTC to new all-time highs of near $74,000. The bitcoin ETFs only booked $133 million and $198 million of net inflows on Thursday and Friday, respectively, while BTC turned sharply lower to below $65,000 over the weekend.
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Bitcoin ETF Flow - 15 March 2024
— BitMEX Research (@BitMEXResearch) March 16, 2024
All data in. Total net inflow of $198.8m for the day.
Table from @FarsideUK pic.twitter.com/QK69AmHz1J
Bitcoin's price found short-term support at those levels and stabilized at $67,000, but the "real test" will come Monday and Tuesday, with bitcoin's correction potentially continuing if ETF inflows disappoint, Markus Thielen, founder of 10X, wrote in a Monday report.
"While this is an unpopular narrative, it would be expected to see inflows slow down after prices experience significant intraday volatility," the report said. "Based on our reversal indicators, a retracement to $59,035 appears more likely, offering better risk-reward entry levels," which would indicate another 10% drop from current BTC prices.
Read more: Bitcoin Sells Off 3%; Is Macro Risk Returning to Market?
Despite the possibility of a deeper correction, the crypto bull market is not over yet, the report added.
"We can still argue that bitcoin will climb materially higher during the next few months as this bull market will likely continue," Thielen said. If BTC recovers above $70,000 – above its former all-time high in 2021 – the rally could open the door to much higher prices, he added.
Earlier Monday, U.K. bank Standard Chartered (STAN) boosted its year-end bitcoin price target to $150,000 from $100,000, while predicting a $250,000 high for 2025.
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