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Vibe Check: Coiling the Spring: CoinDesk Indices' Todd Groth
Periodic observations and market musings from Todd Groth, Head of Research, CoinDesk Indices
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 9:10 p.m. Published Feb 7, 2024, 2:04 p.m.
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Coiling the Spring
We’ve regained 1650 levels on the CoinDesk 20 Index, as the digital asset market settles into familiar levels pre-bitcoin spot ETF launch and we’ve re-established a significant uptrend in the Bitcoin Trend Indicator (BTI). The indicator is an online tool, created by CoinDesk subsidiary CoinDesk Indices, to help investors determine where the price of bitcoin is going.
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The market has also been shrugging off the recent move higher in U.S. interest rates, from last Friday’s January blowout jobs report (+353k vs +170k expected) and Jerome Powell’s 60 Minutes interview over the weekend.
“We're making good progress. The job is not done” said Powell on inflation, causing rates to shoot back upwards towards 4.1% on the U.S. 10-yr (from 3.9% days prior).
Another area where we’re making good progress but the job is not done? The CoinDesk 20, as we move upwards towards retesting the 1800 level and form a bullish pennant.
Need more color on what's happening in the markets? Check out these stories:
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Inflows Climb to Fifth-Highest Among All ETFs in 2024: Fidelity's spot ETF also garnered a ranking in the top 10 of fund inflows so far this year.
- Bitcoin Miner Selling Ahead of Halving Is Capping Prices: Bitfinex: Miner reserves saw continued net outflows since bitcoin ETF debut, falling to their lowest level since June 2021.
- SEC Delays Another Ether ETF Application: A decision for approving or denying a joint Ether ETF product has been pushed back, in line with analyst expectations.
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What to know:
Pudgy Penguins is emerging as one of the strongest NFT-native brands of this cycle, shifting from speculative “digital luxury goods” into a multi-vertical consumer IP platform. Its strategy is to acquire users through mainstream channels first; toys, retail partnerships and viral media, then onboard them into Web3 through games, NFTs and the PENGU token.
The ecosystem now spans phygital products (> $13M retail sales and >1M units sold), games and experiences (Pudgy Party surpassed 500k downloads in two weeks), and a widely distributed token (airdropped to 6M+ wallets). While the market is currently pricing Pudgy at a premium relative to traditional IP peers, sustained success depends on execution across retail expansion, gaming adoption and deeper token utility.
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Gold in 'extreme greed' sentiment as it adds entire bitcoin market cap in one day
Bullion ripped past $5,500 and sentiment gauges hit “extreme greed,” while bitcoin stayed pinned below $90K — a split that’s getting harder to ignore.
What to know:
- Gold’s surge above $5,500 an ounce has taken on the feel of a crowded trade, with its notional value jumping about $1.6 trillion in a single day.
- Sentiment gauges such as JM Bullion’s Gold Fear & Greed Index are signaling extreme bullishness in precious metals, even as similar crypto indicators remain stuck in fear.
- Bitcoin is lagging despite the “hard assets” narrative, trading like a high-beta risk asset while investors seeking a store of value are favoring physical gold and silver over digital tokens.
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