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Bitcoin Dips as U.S. November Job Growth of 199K Tops Estimates
Anticipating a slowdown in the economy and easier Fed monetary policy, investors have sharply bid down interest rates in the weeks leading up to this morning's numbers.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 6:27 p.m. Published Dec 8, 2023, 1:37 p.m.
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The U.S. economy saw stronger-than-expected job growth of 199,000 in November. The unemployment rate also beat expectations, dipping to 3.7%.
Economist forecasts had been for jobs added of 180,000, up from 150,000 in October. The unemployment rate had been forecast to remain flat at 3.9%.
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The price of bitcoin [BTC] fell about 0.5% in the minutes following Friday morning's release to $43,500. In traditional markets, interest rates are shooting higher, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 8 basis points to 4.24%. U.S. stock index futures have turned lower, the Nasdaq 100 off 0.7%.
Bitcoin is in the midst of a sharp 60% rally since the beginning of October, at least in part thanks to lower interest rates on investor expectations that the Fed might soon shift to easier monetary policy. To the extent that this jobs report derails the lower rate forecast, the rally could pause or be modestly reversed.
Checking other report details, average hourly earnings were up 0.4% in November versus 0.2% the previous month and expectations for 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, average hourly earnings were higher by 4% in line with October and forecasts.
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Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 as U.S. recession risk builds, Mike McGlone says
McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
What to know:
- Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that collapsing crypto prices and a potential bitcoin slide toward $10,000 could signal mounting financial stress and foreshadow a U.S. recession.
- McGlone argues the post-2008 "buy the dip" era may be ending as crypto weakens, stock market valuations sit near century highs relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains unusually low.
- Market analyst Jason Fernandes counters that a drop to $10,000 bitcoin would likely require a severe systemic shock and recession, calling such an outcome a low-probability tail risk compared with a milder reset or consolidation.
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