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Bitcoin Carried Crypto Markets in 2025's First Half as Altcoins Crumbled. What's Next?
Crypto stayed flat in a volatile first half of the year thanks to bitcoin. Meanwhile, Ethereum's ETH, Solana's SOL and small caps endured steep losses.
Updated Jun 30, 2025, 8:09 p.m. Published Jun 30, 2025, 8:08 p.m.
What to know:
- The crypto market's total capitalization slightly increased by 3% in the first half of 2025, despite various global economic pressures.
- Performance was starkly uneven: BTC gained 13%, while Ethereum's ETH and Solana's SOL declined 25% and 17%, respectively.
- Analysts remain optimistic about the second half of the year, citing favorable macro backdrop, regulatory advances and crypto treasury demand.
On the surface, the crypto market barely moved in the first half of 2025.
Despite all the tantrum about tariffs, impending recession, war, and heightened expectations of crypto friendly policies and a digital asset strategic reserve with Donald Trump's return to the White House, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, measured by TradingView, inched up a measly 3% to $3.27 trillion over the past six months.
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Looking closer, the performance was starkly uneven, with bitcoin holding up the rest of the market.
BTC climbed 13% in the first six months of 2025, continuing to outshine the broader market. Meanwhile, Ethereum's ether , the second-largest crypto asset, tumbled 25%, and Solana shed nearly 17%.
Smaller and riskier tokens endured even sharper losses: the OTHERS index on TradingView, which excludes the 10 largest assets by market cap, plunged 30%.
What's next?
Despite the modest start to the year, some analysts see room for renewed upside. Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, noted that July has historically been a strong month for crypto, averaging 7.56% returns since 2013.
“We enter a period that has traditionally delivered stronger returns,” said Kruger. “With the second half of the year historically producing outsized gains, the broader setup remains encouraging.”
Kruger also highlighted that the crypto treasury strategy trend is increasingly expanding beyond bitcoin, with firms announcing plans to accumulate digital assets like ETH.
Coinbase analysts also maintained a positive outlook for crypto through the second half of the year, driven by favorable macroeconomic backdrop, potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. with lawmakers advancing legislation for stablecoins and the broader crypto market structure.
Still, the next couple months could be lackluster, Bitfinex analysts warned. The next quarter-year starting with July has been historically the weakest for bitcoin, averaging only 6% gains since 2013, they said in a Monday report.
"This is also where average volatility is subdued, adding to our bias of range bound price action continuing for longer," the authors noted.
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- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
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XRP Faces Downside Risk as Social Sentiment Turns Wildly Negative
The turn in crowd mood comes after a two-month slide of roughly 31%, leaving the token vulnerable to further downside if risk appetite weakens across majors.
What to know:
- XRP's price approached the $2 mark as social sentiment around the token turned sharply negative, according to Santiment data.
- The token has experienced a 31% decline over two months, making it vulnerable to further losses if market risk appetite weakens.
- Santiment's sentiment model indicates XRP is in a 'fear zone,' where negative commentary significantly outweighs positive talk, potentially influencing market positioning.
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