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Gold Leads the Way, Bitcoin Follows; History Suggests a Familiar Pattern
Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, likens this gold rally to a "proper gold rush".
Updated Mar 18, 2025, 1:11 p.m. Published Mar 18, 2025, 10:13 a.m.
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What to know:
- Gold has surged past $3,025 per ounce in 2025, up over 15% this year and 40% year-over-year, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, ETF inflows, and U.S. tariff discussions.
- Bitcoin and gold rarely rally simultaneously; gold tends to rally first. Now in 2025, gold is leading again.
Gold has surged to a new all-time high, surpassing $3,025 per ounce to mark an increase of over 15% in since the turn of the year. Meanwhile, bitcoin is lagging , down 10% year-to-date.
Several factors have contributed to gold’s rally, including significant inflows into gold ETFs and its traditional role as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical uncertainty.
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Additionally, discussions of new tariffs in the U.S. under President Trump have further fueled demand for U.S. equities. Gold’s historic rally has driven its price up 40% year-over-year, far outpacing Bitcoin's 16% gain.
Historically, when gold enters a bull market, bitcoin often stagnates or declines. The two assets rarely move in tandem, though there are occasional periods when both rise or fall simultaneously.
During the significant rallies in both gold and bitcoin from early 2019 through 2020, gold led the charge initially. Bitcoin followed suit in Q4 2020, surging into its own bull run while gold took a backseat.
By 2022, as global interest rates began to rise, both assets faced pressure before rebounding in 2023 and 2024. Now, in 2025, the market is witnessing a renewed divergence between the two.
ByteTree founder Charlie Morris has described this gold rally as a "proper gold rush"—something the market hasn’t seen since 2011.
"Gold above $3,000, silver above $24, and gold stocks gaining momentum—it struck me that the crypto crowd has never witnessed a true gold rush. The last time this happened was in 2011, when Bitcoin was just emerging at $20. They will now."
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‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches spike in the U.S., but the bottom signal is mixed
Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.
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- U.S. searches for “bitcoin zero” on Google hit a record high in February as BTC slid toward $60,000 after hitting a peak in October.
- In the rest of the world, searches for the term peaked in August, suggesting fear is concentrated in the U.S. rather than worldwide.
- Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local bottoms.
- Because Google Trends measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale amid a much larger bitcoin user base today, the latest U.S. spike signals elevated retail anxiety, but does not reliably guarantee a clean contrarian reversal.
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