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Why Bitcoin Will Soar Above Its Fresh Record: Van Straten
Even after breaking through $77,000 for the first time, bitcoin's price looks very likely to keep surging, CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten argues.
Updated Nov 9, 2024, 4:00 p.m. Published Nov 9, 2024, 3:56 p.m.
Bitcoin keeps hitting new highs, propelled above $77,000 on Nov. 8 for the first time ever by crypto industry optimism about Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidential election.
Other cryptocurrencies are soaring, too. Ethereum's ether , for instance, just surpassed $3,000 for the first time since August.
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What's intriguing is that instead of selling off, bitcoin plowed through prior highs on Nov. 6 ($76,400), Nov. 7 ($76,900) and Nov. 8 ($77,200). Gold and U.S. equities are doing the same thing, hitting highs and then breaking them.
This illustrates how strong the current rally is — and how likely it is to continue.
Bitcoin's Google search interest is way below highs
The bitcoin rally can keep going due to several factors. First, Google searchers' interest in the term is still relatively low. Searches were considerably higher in November 2021 and March 2024, so, even though search interest has perked up in the past week, this suggests we are far away from market euphoria.
Profit-taking is below the 2017 all-time high
CoinDesk has been monitoring profit-taking over the past few weeks. Are investors cashing in as bitcoin soars?
They are. Glassnode data shows that on Nov. 6, the day after the U.S. election, $3.5 billion of profit was realized as bitcoin jumped from $68,000 to $76,000, while the total for the next two days was $3.2 billion.
However, even though this may seem like a lot, it's tiny compared with prior all-time highs. In March, when bitcoin finally rose above its 2021 record, profit-taking soared to $10 billion. Throughout the 2021 bull run, it got as high as $6 billion.
It was even higher in 2017 — sometimes around $4.6 billion — when bitcoin records were around $20,000. Current profit-taking isn't even topping that despite bitcoin's price being far higher.
Bitcoin has been stuck between $50,000 and $70,000 for seven months. Despite breaking out of that range, investors are patiently waiting for higher prices.
Bitcoin is still below the inflation-adjusted record
Using inflation from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, you can measure how much purchasing power has been lost versus previous years. Bitcoin's November 2021 record of around $69,000 converts to about $78,000 in today's U.S. dollars, barely above its current price.
Investors may want more for their bitcoin on an inflation-adjusted basis.
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