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First Mover Americas: Bitcoin Sits Around $58.5K at Start of Historically Bearish September
The latest price moves in crypto markets in context for Sept. 2, 2024.
Sep 2, 2024, 12:25 p.m.
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This article originally appeared in First Mover, CoinDesk’s daily newsletter, putting the latest moves in crypto markets in context. Subscribe to get it in your inbox every day.
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Bitcoin fluctuated around the $58,000 mark amid a generally sedate market on Labor Day in the U.S. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $58,600 at the time of writing, about 1% higher in 24 hours. The broader digital asset market has risen 0.9%%, according to CoinDesk Indices data, with ETH and SOL gaining around 1.9% and 0.5%, respectively. U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking BTC posted total net outflows of $175 million on Friday, extending a losing streak to four days. Ether ETFs had zero net inflows or outflows despite $173 million in trading volume, data tracked by SoSoValue shows.
Some traders noted that September is generally one of bitcoin's most bearish months, but said that an interest-rate cut by the Fed could break the trend. “September is a historically negative month for bitcoin, as data shows it has an average value depletion rate of 6.56%,” Innokenty Isers, founder of crypto exchange Paybis, said. “Should the Feds cut the interest rate in September, it might help bitcoin rewrite its negative history as rate cuts generally lead to excessive US dollar flow in the economy – further strengthening the outlook of bitcoin as a store of value.”
Election punters on Polymarket are favoring Republican candidate Donald Trump again as Democrat Kamala Harris’ odds slipped to 47% over the weekend from even odds earlier. Harris’ appeal has drifted lower in the past weeks among traders on Polymarket, while Trump’s has gradually climbed back over 50%. He is again in the lead after nearly two weeks of even odds. Traders have placed $99 million in on-chain bets on Trump winning the election, with over $95 million put on Harris. Harris’ odds have slipped amid outcry for a proposal to tax unrealized gains for people worth over $100 million. Meanwhile, Trump’s odds have increased as he promotes a forthcoming decentralized finance project that could offer “high yields” for crypto users.
Chart of the Day
- The chart shows that bitcoin miners' revenue fell in August to the lowest level since September 2023.
- This was accompanied by an increase in the bitcoin mining difficulty and decrease in the number of BTC mined.
- This highlights the challenge that miners face in adapting to the post-halving world.
- Source: Bitbo
- Jamie Crawley
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‘Bitcoin to zero’ searches spike in the U.S., but the bottom signal is mixed
Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.
What to know:
- U.S. searches for “bitcoin zero” on Google hit a record high in February as BTC slid toward $60,000 after hitting a peak in October.
- In the rest of the world, searches for the term peaked in August, suggesting fear is concentrated in the U.S. rather than worldwide.
- Similar U.S. search spikes in 2021 and 2022 coincided with local bottoms.
- Because Google Trends measures relative interest on a 0-to-100 scale amid a much larger bitcoin user base today, the latest U.S. spike signals elevated retail anxiety, but does not reliably guarantee a clean contrarian reversal.
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