Fed Holds Policy Steady, Expresses More Caution Than Expected on September Rate Cut

• The Fed held policy steady, as expected, but the policy statement was more hawkish than most anticipated.
• At his post-meeting press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was "moving closer" to the point where it might cut rates.

As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. Maybe somewhat surprisingly though, the Fed gave little indication that a September rate cut is guaranteed.

"Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated," said the central bank in its policy statement. "The economic outlook is uncertain, and the [FOMC] is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the statement continued.

In the minutes following the more hawkish than expected statement, bond yields and the dollar rose a bit, but both remained lower for the day. The price of bitcoin BTC$91,423.49 edged lower to $66,550, but remained modestly higher over the past 24 hours. U.S. stocks remained sharply higher for the session, the Nasdaq up 2.4% and S&P 500 1.6%.

Dealing with galloping inflation at the time, the Fed's historic run of tighter policy began in early 2022 taking the fed funds rate from 0% to 5.25%-5.50% in the space of less than 18 months. The rate has remained at that level for more than a year as the central bank has been cautious to ease while inflation stubbornly remained well above its 2% target.

Prior to today's meeting, markets had fully anticipated at least 25 basis points in rate cuts by the mid-September meeting, according to CME FedWatch. Looking out further, markets had priced in a near-60% chance of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the Fed's final meeting of 2024 in mid-December.

Speaking at his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent readings have given more confidence that inflation is moving back to its 2% target. While no decisions have been made about September, he said, the "broad sense is that we're moving closer" to reducing rates.

Update (18:45 UTC, 7/31/24): Added press conference comments from Jerome Powell.