Gold Outshines in 2025 as Bitcoin-Gold Ratio Eyes Q4 Breakout

Gold is the standout performer of 2025, climbing more than 33%.

That’s three times the gain of the Nasdaq 100 index and nearly double bitcoin’s BTC$66,403.01 performance. In practice that means it now takes just 31.2 ounces of gold to buy one BTC, a measure known as the BTC-XAU ratio, down from 40 ounces last December.

The metal, typically used as a haven in times of financial stress, has been underpinned by falling government bond yields across major Western economies, a reflection of high debt burdens, persistent inflation concerns and slowing growth. These dynamics reinforce gold’s historical role as a store of value, and highlight why it arguably deserves to be the benchmark against which all other investments are measured.

Technical analysis shows the BTC-XAU ratio has been consolidating inside a large ascending triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that has been forming since 2017. The ratio end-2024 level mirrored peaks seen at the end of 2021, but has since corrected by about 25%. The structure now points to a potential breakout by late in the fourth quarter or early next year.

Importantly, previous cycles in this ratio saw severe drawdowns — 84% in 2019, 75% in 2020 and 78% in 2022 — before new highs were established. The current pullback is far shallower, suggesting underlying strength and keeping the long-term bullish case intact.