BTC Traders’ 6-Month Outlook Turns Most Bearish Since June 2023 as Momentum Worsens

Key bitcoin BTC$88,841.00 indicators are signaling a potential shift to a bearish market regime as traders await Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

The first one is the 180-day call-put skew derived from options trading on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange by volume and open interest.

As of writing, the 180-day skew was negative 0.42, the lowest since June 2023, according to data source Amberdata. A negative call-put skew suggests that traders are pricing in greater demand for put options (which offer protection against price declines) relative to call options. The data can be interpreted as rising market caution or bearish sentiment over the medium term.

"BTC longer dated skew flipping into put premium could be a sign of regime shift," Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insights, said on X.

The negative reading comes across as a regime shift, as it follows two years of consistently positive values, which reflected a bias toward bullish call options.

More importantly, BTC has only pulled back by roughly 8% from its record highs above $124,000, which were reached a week ago. Yet, the long-term sentiment has flipped bearish.

According to Lakha, the price pullback has triggered demand for put options.

"BTC and ETH skews are pulling toward put premium as markets correct. BTC doesn’t show a call premium again until March 2026. The move lower triggered buying of August/September puts around the $110,000 strike. Calls and call spreads are being sold as longs de-risk into Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday," Lakha said in a blog post.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the central bank's annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Most traders expect Powell to signal rate cuts starting from September and if he gives what's expected, the market may correct, according to Nansen's research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard.

"At this stage, the market broadly expects cuts, so much of that is already priced in. If Powell delivers exactly what’s anticipated, crypto could see sideways to slightly bearish action, a classic “sell the news” dynamic. By contrast, if the Fed signals a deeper or faster cutting cycle than expected, that could spark fresh risk appetite and set the stage for the next bullish leg in crypto," Sondergaard said.

Stock traders chase puts

The demand for downside protection in BTC is consistent with the activity on Wall Street, where traders have been preparing for a sell-off in the major technology stocks.

"Traders are buying 'disaster' puts on the Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index," Jeff Jacobson, head of derivative strategy at 22V Research Group, told Bloomberg.

Guppy multiple moving average indicator

The second indicator pointing to a bearish shift in the regime is the Guppy multiple moving average (GMMA) indicator.

Developed by Australian trader Daryl Guppy, the indicator is used to identify reversals and assess trend strength by analyzing the bands formed by short-term and long-term moving averages. A bullish cross occurs when the green band representing short-term moving averages crosses above the red band of long-term moving averages, indicating that upward momentum is gathering pace.

BTC's price has crossed below the Guppy moving average bands, a sign that bulls are losing control and the long-term sentiment may be turning bearish. This is often considered a warning sign that downside momentum is about to strengthen, paving the way for pronounced price weakness.

Other indicators, such as the MACD histogram, also suggest a strengthening of the downside momentum.

Read more: Bitcoin Hovers at $113K; Solana and Dogecoin Lead Gains Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech