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Kalshi Outpaces Polymarket in Prediction Market Volume Amid Surge in U.S. Trading
Kalshi’s weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million with an average open interest of around $189 million, surpassing Polymarket’s figures, according to Dune analytics data.
Sep 20, 2025, 11:00 p.m.
What to know:
- Kalshi captured 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector from September 11 to 17, according to Dune.
- Kalshi’s weekly trading volume exceeded $500 million with an average open interest of around $189 million, surpassing Polymarket’s figures.
- Polymarket acquired regulated derivatives exchange QCX to re-enter the U.S. market and launched earnings-based markets with Stocktwits.
Kalshi is pulling ahead in the prediction market race, capturing a dominant share of trading volume even as competitors like Polymarket push into regulated U.S. territory.
From Sept. 11 to 17, Kalshi accounted for 62% of total volume in the on-chain prediction market sector, according to data from Dune Analytics, while Polymarket’s stood at 37%. The former’s weekly trading pace topped $500 million, with an average open interest of around $189 million.
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Its volume is beyond that of Polymarket, which stood at $430 million, and its average open interest of $164 million, which implies “sticker positions on Polymarket and faster turnover on Kalshi.”
Polymarket's longer-term markets, which often stretch over weeks or months, keep user funds locked in for longer periods, essentially.
This shows up in the open interest-to-volume ratio: Polymarket averaged 0.38, while Kalshi sat lower at 0.29. That suggests Kalshi's users are trading more often, while Polymarket's positions tend to sit.
Still, Polymarket is building out a greater position in the U.S. The platform has cleared its acquisition of QCX, a regulated derivatives exchange, to enter the country again.
It has also launched earnings-based markets with social investing platform Stocktwits, designed to let stockholders hedge earnings risk and analysts gauge market sentiment in real time.
Read more: Polymarket Weighs $9B Valuation Amid User Surge and CFTC Approval: The Information
AI Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk's full AI Policy.
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