Bitcoin May Have Topped, Warns Key Indicator, But Flows Continue to Lean Bullish

This is a daily analysis by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

A key technical indicator is warning of an early end to the bitcoin BTC$89,182.03 bull market, even as traders continue to position for a continued rally into the year-end.

The indicator under consideration is the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It helps traders gauge the speed and magnitude of recent price movements, typically calculated over a 14-day, 14-week, or 14-month period.

BTC’s 14-month RSI is now flashing a bearish divergence, a pattern that occurs when the indicator begins to decline while prices continue to rise. The occurrence of this divergence on the monthly chart indicates that BTC's bull market may be weakening and could potentially transition into a bearish trend.

The monthly chart shows that while BTC reached a new high in the July-August period, surpassing the December peak, the RSI moved in the opposite direction, forming a lower high.

The bearish divergence gains added significance as it coincides with BTC encountering resistance at a key trendline drawn from the previous bull market peaks of December 2017 and November 2021.

To cut to the chase, bulls should stay alert for potential bearish trend reversals. That said, the latest market flows suggest that traders are anticipating continued price gains.

"Blocks suggest traders are gearing up for further gains, with notable activity in December BTC call spreads ($125K/$160K). Ethereum's focus was on tighter topside, with $4,800 strikes active for September, and front-end pressure lifting," Jake Ostrovskis, OTC Trader at Wintermute, said in an email Thursday.

Block flows are large transactions privately negotiated over the counter and outside of the public order book. These transactions typically involve institutions and high-net-worth individuals.

The December call spread mentioned by Ostrovskis essentially bets on prices rallying to $160K and higher by the end of the year. The consensus is for a continued rally into the year-end and beyond, with prices reaching as high as $190,000. As of writing, BTC changed hands near $110,500, representing a 4.6% loss for the month, according to CoinDesk data.

Read more: Bitcoin ‘Short Strangle’ Preferred as Market Signals Near-Term Calm: 10x Research