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Goldman Sachs Disclosed Ownership of Bitcoin ETFs. Here's Why It Doesn't Mean Much
The bank's clients are likely involved in the basis trade, rather than making a directional bet, said an analyst.
Updated Feb 12, 2025, 3:53 p.m. Published Feb 12, 2025, 3:17 p.m.
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What to know:
- Goldman's ownership of bitcoin ETFs likely represents its clientele, not the bank itself.
- The 13F filing also showed sizable ownership of puts on the ETFs.
- Goldman's clients are likely playing the basis trade rather than betting on price direction.
Bitcoin Twitter (or Bitcoin X) is having a moment after a 13F filing by Goldman Sachs (GS) disclosed higher stakes in a handful of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), but the facts are less than meets the eye.
First and foremost, ownership of the ETFs isn't exactly a bet by the Goldman trading floor on the price of bitcoin (BTC). The stakes are almost surely held by the bank's asset management arm, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, for its clientele.
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Secondly, while the filing — which is a snapshot of ownership as of Dec. 31, 2024 — shows a $288 million stake in the Fidelity Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) and a $1.3 billion stake in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT), it also shows put option positions with nominal value of more than $600 million (along with a small call option position).
An put option gives the holder the right, but not the obligation, to sell that asset at a predetermined price. It can be seen as protection against price drop, representing a bearish stance.
"This position by Goldman Sachs, similar to many other banks and hedge funds, is not a net long position," said CoinDesk Senior Analyst James Van Straten. "This is a strategy that reflects the basis trade, also known as the cash and carry trade, balancing potential profits and risks for bitcoin price fluctuations. The ETFs recently had options approved on them so this is most likely directional hedging."
With the deadline for the fourth-quarter 13F disclosures fast approaching, similar filings — along with misleading headlines — are surely on the way for JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and other large wealth-management operations.
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Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 as U.S. recession risk builds, Mike McGlone says
McGlone links bitcoin’s downturn to record U.S. market cap-to-GDP levels, low equity volatility and rising gold prices, warning of potential contagion into stocks.
Bilinmesi gerekenler:
- Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone warns that collapsing crypto prices and a potential bitcoin slide toward $10,000 could signal mounting financial stress and foreshadow a U.S. recession.
- McGlone argues the post-2008 "buy the dip" era may be ending as crypto weakens, stock market valuations sit near century highs relative to GDP, and equity volatility remains unusually low.
- Market analyst Jason Fernandes counters that a drop to $10,000 bitcoin would likely require a severe systemic shock and recession, calling such an outcome a low-probability tail risk compared with a milder reset or consolidation.
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