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Bitcoin Soars as Gold Dips: The Stellar 12% Surge in BTC/XAU Signals a Market Shift
The ratio surged 12% Wednesday as the pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election.
Updated Nov 7, 2024, 11:43 a.m. Published Nov 7, 2024, 8:27 a.m.
- BTC/Gold registers its biggest single-day rise since February 2022.
- Renewed uptrend points to bitcoin outperformance ahead and potential rotation of money out of the yellow metal.
A week ago, CoinDesk reported that bitcoin’s price rally is expected to gain momentum as gold loses its bullish edge, prompting a rotation of capital from the yellow metal into the leading cryptocurrency by market value.
The pivotal moment appears to be here, bolstering the case for a continued BTC price to $80,000 and higher by the year-end, according to the latest developments in the ratio between bitcoin’s per-piece dollar price and gold’s per-ounce price.
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Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market value, jumped nearly 10% to record highs above $76,000 Wednesday, as the pro-crypto Republican candidate Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election. Meanwhile, gold fell 3% to $2,658. As such, the BTC/gold (BTC/XAU) ratio surged 12% Wednesday, registering BTC’s biggest single-day outperformance relative to gold since Feb. 28, 2022, according to charting platform TradingView.
More importantly, Wednesday’s surge confirmed an end of an eight-month-long downtrend, identified by a trendline connecting highs in March and June.
The breakout suggests a renewed outperformance of bitcoin relative to gold, fueled in part by investors reallocating their funds from the yellow metal to BTC.
“Analyzing the BTC to gold ratio, we can see that the downtrend [indicative of gold’s outperformance since March] is starting to reverse. Globally, investors will increasingly focus on hedging against currency debasement and capitalizing on the Trump market play, both of which favor BTC,” Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter said.
BTC also stands to benefit from the expected regulatory clarity for the digital asset industry and increased institutional adoption under Trump’s presidency. There is speculation that the Trump administration could build a strategic bitcoin reserve.
Meanwhile, gold’s fate will likely be decided by the expectations of elevated interest rates under the Trump presidency, which could dent its appeal.
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Coinbase Sees Crypto Recovery Ahead as Liquidity Improves and Fed Rate Cut Odds Climb
The crypto exchange also took note of a so-called AI bubble that continues to go strong and a weaker U.S. dollar.
What to know:
- Coinbase Institutional is seeing a potential December recovery in crypto, citing improving liquidity and a shift in macroeconomic conditions that could favor risk assets like bitcoin.
- The firm's optimism is driven by rising odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with markets pricing in a 93% chance easing next week, and improving liquidity conditions.
- Several recent institutional developments, including Vanguard's crypto ETF policy reversal and Bank of America's greenlighting of crypto allocations, have contributed to bitcoin's rebound from recent lows.
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