BITCOIN SEASON 2: All Your Bitcoin Models Are Broken (But Really)

Charlie and Colin demolish every popular Bitcoin price model - stock-to-flow, rainbow charts, power law, and Metcalfe's law. Why they're all wrong and what might actually work this cycle.

Jun 14, 2025

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Charlie and Colin break down every major Bitcoin price prediction model and explain why they're all fundamentally flawed. From Plan B's broken stock-to-flow to Giovanni's power law obsession, rainbow charts, and Metcalfe's law - we expose the problems with each approach and introduce Charlie's new "institutional structured bid corridor" theory for this cycle.

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NOTES:

• Stock-to-flow predicted $1M by 2025 - failed

• Rainbow chart undefeated since 2013

• Power law predicts $100K by 2028 latest

• Metcalfe's law broken by ETF adoption

• Hyper-bitcoinization chart shows $100B BTC

• Institutional money creating price channels

Timestamps:

00:00 Start

00:34 Price Models

02:09 Stock to Flow

10:48 Rainbow Chart

14:59 Arch Network

15:31 Power Law

21:40 Metcalfe's Law

28:03 Hyperbitcoinization Model

30:47 Institutional Structure Bid Corridor Model

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