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Bitcoin Faces Massive 'Supply Gap' Between $70K and $80K
According to Glassnode data, approximately 20% of Bitcoin's supply is currently at a loss.
Updated Mar 17, 2025, 1:29 p.m. Published Mar 17, 2025, 10:53 a.m.
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What to know:
- Bitcoin’s rapid price surge in November has created a supply gap in the $70,000 to $80,000 range.
- A drop below $80,000 could lead to a sharp decline, with significant support concentrated around $70,000.
- Approximately 20% of Bitcoin’s supply is at a loss.
Bitcoin's ongoing price pullback could accelerate below $80K, as on-chain analysis by Glassnode indicates that the $10K price range beneath this level was marked by weak economic activity late last year.
BTC prices quickly rose from $70K to above $80K in early November after pro crypto Donald Trump won the U.S. Presidential election. As a result, very little BTC changed hands between those levels, leaving a so-called "supply gap," as evident from Glassnode's UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) chart.
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This metric tracks the price points at which existing bitcoin UTXOs were last moved. Each bar represents the volume of bitcoin that last changed hands within a specific price range. The data is entity-adjusted, meaning it assigns an average purchase price for each entity, categorizing its full balance accordingly.
Bitcoin's rapid surge from the mid-$60K to over $100K following Donald Trump's U.S. election victory left little supply accumulation in the $70K to $80K range, as it traded only for a few days between these levels.
In other words, the total number of traders with acquisition prices between $70K and $80K is likely to be far less than at other levels. So, a move below $80K will likely see very little bargain hunting from holders looking to buy more at their acquisition costs, thus ensuring little support before $73K, the all time high set in March 2024.
Besides, as bitcoin currently consolidates above $80K, approximately 20% of the total supply is currently at a loss—meaning these holdings were purchased above the current price of $83K. These wallets could add to the selling pressure below $80K, leading to a quick slide.
Glassnode data shows that approximately 100,000 BTC have been sold by short-term holders due to the price correction. While the lack of supply and current tepid demand has already contributed to bitcoin’s 30% pullback from its all-time high of $108K.
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