Share this article
Bitcoin ETF Approval Odds Raised to Over 90% by Bloomberg Analysts, Drop on Polymarket
Two influential analysts have tipped odds at over 90% ahead of the Securities and Exchange Commission decision.
Updated Mar 8, 2024, 7:26 p.m. Published Jan 8, 2024, 9:02 a.m.
Odds of a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) being approved in the U.S. have risen to more than 90%, two influential analysts at Bloomberg said, while crypto market participants at betting platform Polymarket became more pessimistic, trimming the odds to 85%.
For full coverage of bitcoin ETFs, click here.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Don't miss another story.Subscribe to the Crypto Daybook Americas Newsletter today. See all newsletters
Referring to the likelihood of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rejecting proposals after Friday's flurry of updated filings, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said in a Saturday post: “I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.” He previously tipped the odds at 90% in November, saying that updated forms at the time indicated providers were moving in the right direction.
Well said although I probably go with 5% at this point. But you gotta leave a little window open for these things.
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 6, 2024
Crypto market participants, however, have a dimmer view of approval being granted before Jan. 15, a betting market on Polymarket suggests. Participants have cumulatively wagered about $500,000 on the approval being delayed, or even denied, lowering the odds from last week’s 90%.
Even so, much of the crypto market still expects key decisions by the SEC this week will lead to the first spot bitcoin ETFs being offered to professional investors in the country. A regulated offering is expected to attract billions of dollars in bitcoin demand, making it one of the most-watched catalysts in the asset’s history.
More than a dozen applicants hope to launch the first spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. On Friday, several amended 19b-4 filings, filed on behalf of BlackRock, Grayscale, Fidelity and other issuers, joined last month's amended S-1 filings, addressing feedback from the SEC.
Both the 19b-4 filings and the S-1 filings need to be approved before the ETFs can launch.
More For You
What to know:
- As of October 2025, GoPlus has generated $4.7M in total revenue across its product lines. The GoPlus App is the primary revenue driver, contributing $2.5M (approx. 53%), followed by the SafeToken Protocol at $1.7M.
- GoPlus Intelligence's Token Security API averaged 717 million monthly calls year-to-date in 2025 , with a peak of nearly 1 billion calls in February 2025. Total blockchain-level requests, including transaction simulations, averaged an additional 350 million per month.
- Since its January 2025 launch , the $GPS token has registered over $5B in total spot volume and $10B in derivatives volume in 2025. Monthly spot volume peaked in March 2025 at over $1.1B , while derivatives volume peaked the same month at over $4B.
More For You
Dogecoin Hovers Near Key Support as Fed Easing Fails to Spark Risk Rally
Despite elevated trading activity, Dogecoin faces resistance near $0.1425, and its future movement is likely dependent on broader market sentiment.
What to know:
- The Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate cut has led to mixed market reactions, with Dogecoin trading quietly within its established range.
- Dogecoin's price remains stable between $0.13 and $0.15, with whale wallets accumulating significant amounts of the cryptocurrency.
- Despite elevated trading activity, Dogecoin faces resistance near $0.1425, and its future movement is likely dependent on broader market sentiment.
Top Stories
