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In First Since 2015, Bitcoin's Price Is Testing a 200-Week Average
Updated Sep 13, 2021, 8:37 a.m. Published Nov 21, 2018, 3:15 p.m.
The pace of bitcoin's ongoing sell-off is setting new records with every passing day, the latest being its test of a key long-term moving average for the first time in three years.
Indeed, the world's most valuable cryptocurrency network fell below its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $4,180 yesterday, marking the first break of the crucial support since August 2015. Back then, BTC was changing hands around $220, according to Bitstamp data.
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The breach of long-term support, however, was short-lived as record low readings on the relative strength index (RSI) likely put a bid under BTC, helping it regain some poise.
At press time, BTC is changing hands at $4,440, having clocked a 14-month low of $4,048 yesterday.
Notably, the recovery has established the 200-week EMA as the level to watch out for in the near-term. The already bearish technical setup would be bolstered further if the cryptocurrency finds acceptance below the long-term EMA support, leading to a deeper drop below the psychological support of $3,000.
Weekly chart
As can be seen above, the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the rally from 2015 lows to 2017 highs lines up at $4,328 - just above the 200-week EMA of $4,180. So, it seems safe to say that the area between $4,100 and $4,350 is packed with key support lines.
The chart also shows that a break below the 200-week EMA could prove costly as the next major support is seen directly at $3,130 – the widely followed 200-week simple moving average.
Disclosure: The author holds no cryptocurrency assets at the time of writing.
image via Shutterstock; Charts by Trading View
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- Citigroup's base case for bitcoin (BTC) is a rise to $143,000 in 12 months.
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- The bear case sees bitcoin falling to $78,500 amid a global recession, while the bull case predicts a rise to $189,000 due to increased investor demand.
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