U.S. jobs data, tariffs ruling suggest volatile Friday: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Traders, skip the cozy Friday vibe. The day's key U.S. data and events could lead to volatile price action in bitcoin BTC$76 229,95 and the wider crypto market.

First up, the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, closely followed by the Federal Reserve's rate-setting committee, is set for release at 8:30 a.m. According to FactSet, the economy probably added 55,000 jobs in December. Still, the jobless rate is forecast to have declined to 4.5% from 4.6% with average hourly earnings, or the wage growth, increasing by 3.6% year-on-year.

The Fed justified recent rate cuts by citing a softening labor market. So weak data would cement the outlook for further cuts, potentially weakening the dollar and sending risk assets, including BTC, higher.

Then the focus shifts to a Supreme Court decision on whether President Donald Trump was right in using an emergency law to impose sweeping tariffs on trading partners last year.

Prediction markets on Kalshi currently see only a 28% chance of the Supreme Court fully upholding the tariffs. Risk sentiment may increase if they are deemed illegal, though relief could be temporary, as several observers say Trump can use other means to continue his hawkish trade policy.

Traders will also hear Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, discuss the Fed's policy trajectory and inflation. He is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m., which is also when Michigan inflation expectations and consumer sentiment figures for January will hit the wires.

The crypto market lacks a clear directional bias ahead of these key events, with bitcoin BTC$76 229,95 trading near $90,500, up just 0.2% over 24 hours. The prices has fallen more than 0.5% since the early Asian trading hours.

Except for solana SOL$97,71, which is up 2.8% over 24 hours, most majors, including XRP XRP$1,5913, ether ETH$2 264,91 and BNB BNB$757,29, are little changed. The CoinDesk Memecoin Index (CDMEME) has gained over 8%.

In key news, the U.S.-listed bitcoin ETFs registered outflows for the third straight day on Thursday, reversing the inflows of over $1 billion early this month, which had sparked optimism among analysts.

In traditional markets, the dollar index's outlook appears bullish as charts indicate a golden cross, a pattern where the 50-day price average shifts above the 200-day average. The crossover suggests that the short-term trend is now outperforming the long-term trajectory, with the potential to evolve into a bull run. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Crypto
  • Jan. 9, 8 a.m.: NuNet (NTX) AMA.
  • Jan. 9, 8 a.m.: XVS$3,7541 AMA on Telegram.
• Macro
  • Jan. 9, 7 a.m.: Brazil Dec. Consumer Price Inflation. Headline Rate YoY Est. 4.3%; Headline Rate MoM Est. 0.35%.
  • Jan. 9, 8:30 a.m.: Canada Dec. Unemployment Rate Est. 6.6%.
  • Jan. 9, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Dec. Jobs Report. Nonfarm Payrolls Est. 60K; Unemployment Rate Est. 4.5%.
  • Jan. 9, 10 a.m.: Dec. (Preliminary) Michigan Inflation Expectations (Prev. 4.2%).
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Governance votes & calls
  • Jan. 9: PancakeSwap and Venus Protocol to conduct an X Spaces session.
  • Jan. 9: Ontology's gas price reduction governance vote ends.
• Unlocks
  • No major unlocks.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 9: Trove Markets’ initial coin offering (ICO) starts.
  • Jan. 9: DeepNode AI’s token generation event occurs.
  • Jan. 9: DeepNode (DN) to be listed on Binance, Bitget, MEXC, KuCoin, Gate, and others.
  • Jan. 10: Infinex’s INX initial coin offering ends.
  • Jan. 10: Ranger Finance (RNGR) initial coin offerings ends.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead".

• Nothing scheduled.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.04% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $90,260.29 (24hrs: +0.06%)
• ETH is down 0.83% at $3,090.30 (24hrs: -0.99%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 1.2% at 2,893.67 (24hrs: +0.46%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is down 2 bps at 2.84%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0045% (4.9746% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is up 0.21% at 99.06
• Gold futures are up 0.72% at $4,481.70
• Silver futures are up 4.29% at $77.93
• Nikkei 225 closed up 1.61% at 51,939.89
• Hang Seng closed up 0.32% at 26,231.79
• FTSE 100 is up 0.36% at 10,081.13
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.72% at 5,947.09
• DJIA closed on Thursday up 0.55% at 49,266.11
• S&P 500 closed unchanged at 6,921.46
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.44% at 23,480.02
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.76% at 32,378.60
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.74% at 3,247.68
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is up 5 bps at 4.18%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,966.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.11% at 25,714.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are unchanged at 49,494.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.08% (0.14%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03423 (0.37%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,036 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.04
• Total fees: 2.53 BTC / $229,011
• CME Futures Open Interest: 114,020 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 20.2 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 6.05%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows XRP's daily price swings in candlestick format.
• The recent bounce ran out of steam precisely at around the trendline drawn off record highs, characterizing the broader bearish trajectory.
• Prices need to overcome that resistance to confirm a bearish-to-bullish trend change.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $245.59 (-0.14%), unchanged in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $81.79 (+1.49%), +0.38% at $82.10
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $25.50 (-0.04%), unchanged in pre-market
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $39.30 (+0.13%), unchanged in pre-market
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.44 (+3.57%), -0.48% at $10.39
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $15.13 (-0.92%), unchanged in pre-market
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.68 (+2.71%)
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $11.99 (+0.50%), -0.17% at $11.97
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $44.50 (+2.74%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $16.07 (-0.99%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $166.97 (+3.18%), -0.59% at $165.98
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $20.67 (-0.05%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.28 (+1.38%), -0.49% at $10.23
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $2.23 (+3.72%), -1.35% at $2.20
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.49 (+4.93%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$398.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $56.63 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.3 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$159.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.55 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.16 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Russia says it used nuclear-capable missile to strike Ukraine (The New York Times): The strike near the western city of Lviv involved the rare use of an Oreshnik intermediate-range missile, which Moscow said was fired in response to an alleged attack on Putin’s residence.
• Iran shuts down internet in crackdown on escalating protests (Bloomberg): The shutdown followed nationwide demonstrations sparked by a currency collapse and rising living costs, now seen as the regime’s biggest test since the 2022 uprising.
• Builders behind popular Zcash wallet Zashi to launch new startup 'cashZ' (CoinDesk): The former Electric Coin Company CEO said governance limits under Zcash’s nonprofit structure prompted a shift to a for-profit model aimed at speeding product development.
• Ethereum treasury firm SharpLink stakes $170M ETH on Linea network (CoinDesk): The deployment puts a previously outlined plan into action, combining Ethereum staking and restaking as well as Linea incentives to generate yield on treasury holdings.