Still Jittery: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Jamie Crawley (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Bitcoin BTC$90,778.92 showed signs of a Thanksgiving week rally on Monday, almost reclaiming $90,000 and offering a ray of hope that the weekend's recovery from below $85,000 may turn into something a bit more sustained. The optimism was short-lived, with BTC dropping back to $87,000 during the European morning Tuesday.

The CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) also looked like it was getting into the holiday spirit rising almost to 3,000 before retreating around 3% to 2,485.84, showing that across the crypto market, buyers are operating with caution rather than conviction.

Part of the explanation for this sedate mood could in the U.S. holiday period. With Thanksgiving two days away, liquidity can be expected to dry up and risk-taking to minimize, according to Emir Ibrahim, an analyst at Australian digital asset investment firm Zerocap.

Ibrahim noted that during last week's volatility, crypto traded as a high-beta proxy to weakness in the U.S. tech industry.

"The key dynamic is that all of BTC’s weekly negative PNL came from the U.S. trading session, while APAC and EU’s hours were mostly flat-to-positive," he wrote in an emailed comment, using an acronym for profit and loss. "That leaves little doubt that both the global credit crunch and the U.S. equity unwind are driving the drag."

Far from establishing itself as a haven from broader financial choppy waters, as its moniker as "digital gold" might indicate, bitcoin is again resembling the nervous younger sibling of the U.S. tech industry.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains firmly in the "extreme fear" cellar on a rating of 15, albeit a slight improvement from yesterday's 12. It fell to a yearly low of 10 on Saturday. This movement does not guarantee that the floor is in, but it reinforces that the next directional moves are likely to be more about macro shifts than trader vibes.

Another cause for bulls to put on a brave face could lie in the average funding rate, a measure of the cost of holding both long and short positions. This slipped negative for the first time in a month and indicates an overabundance of bearish bets and therefore the potential for a classic short squeeze.

This could spell a continued price recovery as we head into December, provided macroeconomic conditions don't spoil it. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Crypto
  • Nothing scheduled.
• Macro
  • Nov. 25, 7 a.m.: Mexico Sept. Retail Sales YoY (Prev. 2.4%), MoM (Prev. 0.6%).
  • Nov. 25, 8:15 a.m.: ADP Employment Change Weekly (Prev. -2.5K).
  • Nov. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. PPI. Headline YoY Est. 2.7%, MoM Est. 0.3%. Core YoY Est. 2.7%, MoM Est. 0.3%.
  • Nov. 25, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Sept. Retail Sales YoY (Prev. 5%), MoM Est. 0.4%.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
  • Nothing scheduled.

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Governance votes and calls
  • ADA$0.4196 is voting on on registering the .ada and .cardano internet domains with ICANN.
• Unlocks
  • Plasma XPL$0.1800 to unlock 4.74% of its circulating supply worth $16.96 million.
• Token Launches
  • FLUID$3.2071, WMTX$0.09858 to list on Coinbase with USD pairs.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."

• Day 1 of 3: Finance Magnates London Summit 2025

Market Movements

• BTC is down 1.72% % from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $87,240.48 (24hrs: +1.34%)
• ETH is down 2.22% at $2,893.53 (24hrs: +3.34)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 2.12% at 2,858.48 (24hrs: +3.54%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 3 bps at 2.84%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0064% (6.9894% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.11% at 100.03
• Gold futures are up 0.99% at $4,171.90
• Silver futures are up 1.10% at $51.52
• Nikkei 225 closed unchanged at 48,659.52
• Hang Seng closed up 0.69% at 25,894.55
• FTSE is up 0.04% at 9,538.59
• Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,524.56
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.44% at 46,448.27
• S&P 500 closed up 1.55% at 6,705.12
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 2.69% at 22,872.01
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.47% at 30,604.35
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.59% at 3,054.47
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 0.5 bps at 4.031%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are down 0.2% at 6,707.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are down 0.36% at 24,858.25
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are down 0.16% at 46,441.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.78 (+0.02%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03315 (-0.89%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,060 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $36.01
• Total fees: 2.58 BTC / $225,616
• CME Futures Open Interest: 132,395 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 21.1 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.84%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows hourly changes in bitcoin's price since Nov. 17. The lower pane shows changes in open interest in USDT and USD-denominated perpetual futures listed on major exchanges, including Binance, Bybit, Deribit and others.
• While prices have bounced since Friday, open interest is still falling.
• The divergence between the two indicates that derivative traders are yet to join the recovery rally.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN) closed on Monday at $255.97, (+6.47%), -1.75% at $251.50 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL) closed at $72.74, (+1.98%), -1.09% at $71.95
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY) closed at $24.78, (+5.81%), -1.78% at $24.34
• Bullish (BLSH) closed at $41.50 (+7.51%), -1.05% at $41.08
• MARA Holdings (MARA) closed at $11.21, (+11.32%), -2.14% at $10.97
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) closed at $13.88, (+9.21%), -0.94% at $13.75
• Core Scientific (CORZ) closed at $15.75, (+6.92%), -1.21% at $15.56
• CleanSpark (CLSK) closed at $11.48 (+17.99%), -1.13% at $11.35
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI) closed at $38.04, (-1.91%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD) closed at $15.18, (+3.62%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $179.04 (+5.01%), -2.6 % at $174.38
• Semler Scientific (SMLR) closed at $20.88, (+9.72%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $10.08 (+5.88%), -2.98% at $9.78
• Upexi Inc (UPXI) closed at $2.81, (+11.51%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS) closed at $1.83 (+7.65%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$151 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.47 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $96.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.75 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.17 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

• Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut (The Wall Street Journal): Comments from New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco’s Daly signal support for Powell’s risk-management strategy, boosting odds of a December rate cut despite divisions within the FOMC.
• Bitcoin Faces Short Squeeze Risk Above $87K as Funding Rates Hint Local Bottom (CoinDesk): A cluster of short positions near $87,000 faces liquidation risk, while negative funding rates point to bearish overcrowding — both raising the odds of a short squeeze if bitcoin breaks higher.
• Bitcoin Traders See Signs of Sell-Off Easing as Token Steadies (Bloomberg): Falling demand for downside protection, steady ETF holdings and a key technical signal are fueling cautious optimism that bitcoin’s brutal correction may have ended.
• Monad’s Debut Shows Why FDV Forecasts Broke as Bitcoin Fell (CoinDesk): Monad’s MON launch shows how limited float and locked supply can inflate fully diluted valuations, creating the illusion of strong demand even when real liquidity and market appetite are thin.
• Currency Traders Bet Against Sterling Ahead of Budget (Financial Times): CME Group data shows sterling put volume outpacing calls 4-to-1 ahead of Rachel Reeves’ budget, with traders positioning for weak growth tied to tax hikes and the Labour Party’s uncertain fiscal stance.