Ethereum Could Win the War, But Lose the Prize

Over the past decade, Ethereum has become the foundation of on-chain finance. It introduced programmable money, enabled the tokenization of real-world assets and launched the DeFi movement. But now, its success presents a new challenge: invisibility. As Ethereum powers more applications behind the scenes, it risks becoming something everyone uses but no one notices.

The risk of becoming invisible infrastructure

Ethereum is becoming what it always said it would be: a settlement layer. Its core focus is security, finality and data availability. Computation and user-facing activity have been handed off to rollups and Layer 2s. Recent changes, like EIP-4844’s introduction of blobspace, are great for scalability, but they push Ethereum further into the background.

As Ethereum becomes more modular, users don’t see it. They interact with apps and chains built on top of it, often without realizing Ethereum is underneath. This invisibility might be a feature, not a bug, but it has consequences. If the network becomes just another backend, it risks losing its cultural and economic gravity.

What happens to ETH?

ETH’s value currently rests on transaction fees, staking rewards and blobspace payments. Yet staking yields are still substantially funded through inflation rather than genuine usage. Blobspace fees, meanwhile, exist in a nascent, unpredictable market. If these fees rise too high, rollups might migrate to competing, cheaper data availability solutions like Celestia. Conversely, excessively low fees could jeopardize ETH’s economic model and its attractiveness to validators.

There’s a world where ETH starts to behave more like a bandwidth credit or a low-volatility bond. That might work technically, but it would be a far cry from the early vision of ETH as programmable money, a reserve asset for a new internet economy.

Governance gridlock and fragmentation

Ethereum’s commitment to decentralization is one of its greatest strengths. But let’s be honest: it slows things down. Big upgrades like proposer-builder separation or shared sequencing are stuck in governance limbo. Meanwhile, rollups and L2s are racing ahead, each building their own islands. That fragmentation shows up in the user experience. Wallets, bridges and gas tokens….it’s still messy.

Ethereum feels less like one network and more like a loose federation. And if users can’t feel the benefits of the underlying infrastructure, they’ll eventually stop caring about what it is.

The need for a compelling narrative

Bitcoin is digital gold. Solana is fast and user-friendly. What’s Ethereum’s tagline? Settlement neutrality? Governance minimization? These values matter, but they don’t land with everyday users or even most developers. Ethereum has always resisted flashy branding, but at some point, people need a reason to believe.

If Ethereum wants to stay central, not just structurally, but socially, it needs a clearer story. A reason why ETH is the asset to hold. A reason why developers should build here first. A reason why users should care that their app runs on Ethereum instead of something faster or cheaper.

What needs to happen next?

First, ETH should remain the exclusive payment method for core services like blobspace. No workarounds or abstraction layers that dilute demand.

Second, staking economics need to shift away from inflation and toward real revenue. Blobspace, proof verification or other network activity should fund rewards, not just newly minted ETH.

Third, the user experience across the modular stack has to improve. Wallets, rollups and apps need to feel like one seamless ecosystem. Otherwise, Ethereum risks losing not just users, but mindshare.

And finally, Ethereum needs to stop whispering and start speaking clearly; its values, decentralization and credible neutrality are powerful but they need to be translated into outcomes people care about. Financial access, censorship resistance and ownership without permission are at stake.

Ethereum’s moment to lead

Ethereum is not at risk of disappearing or being overtaken; it’s too decentralized, too integrated and too essential. However, if it does not proactively evolve politically, economically and culturally, it may fade into infrastructural obscurity. Ethereum will continue to secure critical applications and assets, anchoring immense value. Yet it risks feeling more like a utility than an active, vibrant ecosystem.

Ownership of the future means more than providing secure infrastructure. It means setting standards, driving innovation, influencing user experiences and cultivating a culture developers and users gravitate toward. Currently, Ethereum outsources much of this influence to secondary layers and external narratives. To avoid becoming the transmission control protocol/internet protocol of crypto, indispensable but invisible and commoditized, Ethereum must reclaim the narrative, shaping not just the infrastructure but the ideas and experiences built upon it. Success without leadership is only partial victory. Ethereum must seize the opportunity fully, not give it away.