{"id":54219,"date":"2026-08-18T13:30:04","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:30:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/?p=54219"},"modified":"2026-08-18T13:30:23","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T18:30:23","slug":"bitcoin-volatility-dampens-vaneck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/news\/bitcoin-volatility-dampens-vaneck","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s Wild Swings Go Quiet, Even as the Bears Won&#8217;t Let Go"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"bsf_rt_marker\"><\/div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin is deep into its bear market, though it&#8217;s doing something it doesn&#8217;t typically do: sit still.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That&#8217;s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vaneck.com\/us\/en\/blogs\/digital-assets\/matthew-sigel-vaneck-mid-august-2026-bitcoin-chaincheck\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">according<\/a> to a new report by VanEck, which noted that thirty-day realized volatility has fallen to 27.2% annualized, down from 30.4% the prior month and less than half bitcoin&#8217;s long-run average of roughly 80%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For an asset known for double-digit daily swings, that&#8217;s an unusually still market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The calm comes as bitcoin claws back from a June low near $58,500, holding inside a tight $62,265-to-$66,509 band through most of July.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-x wp-block-embed-x\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Bitcoin capitulation check <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/r7xrKXjiNR\">https:\/\/t.co\/r7xrKXjiNR<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/nuSaTDQUTz\">pic.twitter.com\/nuSaTDQUTz<\/a><\/p>&mdash; matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/matthew_sigel\/status\/2089744168687960463?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">August 18, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bitcoin remains about 9% below its 200-day moving average \u2014 a narrower gap than the 14% discount seen a month ago \u2014 and still sits roughly 49% below its all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Trading activity tells a similar story of a market on pause. Spot volume over the trailing 30 days is down 27% from the prior month, landing in just the 10th percentile of its own history, VanEck noted.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Analysts at investment firm note the summer slowdown is deeper than in either 2024 or 2025, pushing spot volumes down toward levels last seen in the 2023 bear market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the same time, longtime holders have started letting go of coins, VanEck said. Bitcoin held for more than a year fell by about 356,000 BTC (-2.9%) over the month, pushing the long-term holder share of total supply below 60% for the first time in months.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The selling was concentrated in coins held one to three years, while the oldest holders \u2014 those sitting on coins for more than a decade \u2014 barely moved, down just 0.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Coming into a period historically associated with bitcoin&#8217;s four-year boom-and-bust cycle, VanEck&#8217;s research points to 8 of 12 tracked capitulation signals currently flashing, consistent with the later stages of a drawdown.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Based on the length of prior cycles, the firm sees a bottom potentially forming anywhere between September and November of this year \u2014 though it cautions that the historical record of returns following similar signal clusters is mixed, and only shows a clear edge over a full one-year horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For now, bitcoin&#8217;s story is less about direction and more about the unusual stillness of a market that, by its own history, rarely stays this quiet for long.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin&#8217;s volatility has dampened significantly, according to new VanEck research. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3860,"featured_media":54220,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4378],"tags":[76,212,132,547],"class_list":["post-54219","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-news","tag-bitcoin","tag-bitcoin-etf","tag-bitcoin-price","tag-vaneck"],"author_data":{"id":3860,"name":"Mathew Di Salvo","nicename":"mathewdisalvo","avatar_url":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/cropped-Mathew-Di-Salvo-scaled-1.jpeg"},"featured_image_url":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/08\/Bitcoins-Wild-Swings-Go-Quiet-Even-as-the-Bears-Wont-Let-Go.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54219","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3860"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=54219"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54219\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":54222,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/54219\/revisions\/54222"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=54219"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=54219"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/bitcoinmagazine.com\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=54219"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}