{"id":622705,"date":"2026-08-06T10:00:52","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T14:00:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=622705"},"modified":"2026-08-06T04:21:06","modified_gmt":"2026-08-06T08:21:06","slug":"analyst-bitcoins-bottom-is-still-2-months-to-go-from-today-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/analyst-bitcoins-bottom-is-still-2-months-to-go-from-today-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: ‘Bitcoin’s bottom is still 2 months to go from today’ – Here’s why"},"content":{"rendered":"

Bitcoin [BTC] has traded lower since the bears seized control in October, when its price briefly pushed past $126,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

The asset has fallen 25.98% this year, and the downtrend keeps extending. The slide has stripped $665 billion from its market capitalization and dragged its valuation down to $1.29 trillion.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin has shown fresh strength over the past day, crossing the $65,000 mark in the early hours of Wednesday, but analysts warn the expected bull run could still be delayed.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t here yet<\/h2>\n

Joao Wedson, market analyst and founder of Alphractal, said in a recent X<\/a> post the bull market for Bitcoin could take another two months to kick in.<\/p>\n

“Based on Bitcoin’s historical cycle patterns, there could still be at least 2 months to go from today.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

His call draws on analysis showing Bitcoin’s resilience against intensifying bear pressure\u2014at the bears’ peak on day 267, the asset had fallen just 53.1%.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: Alphractal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The last three bear markets – 2013 to 2015, 2017 to 2018, and 2021 to 2022 – carved out drawdowns of 85.3%, 83.4%, and 75.7%, respectively, with an average duration of 382 days.<\/p>\n

At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits 303 days past its market peak, leaving roughly 79 more days of decline, landing the bottom in October.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin’s short-term holders hint at a breakout<\/h2>\n

FrankAFetter, a pseudonymous Bitcoin analyst, reads the recent surge more positively and expects a decent near-term performance.<\/p>\n

He built the case on Bitcoin’s short-term holder profit\/loss ratio. The chart pattern he highlighted shows the ratio failing each time it reaches the break-even point, pushing Bitcoin back into loss.<\/p>\n

It has played out twice – once as Bitcoin tested $97,000 and again as the asset traded into $82,000 – forming lower highs.<\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin:<\/a>
Source: X\/FrankAFetter<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

This time he anticipates a breakout and a sustained rally above the break-even point because he believes short-term holders now act as \u201cmarket actors with a long-term holder mindset.\u201d<\/p>\n

“They are all buyers from the initial February crash to 60k.”<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

For a longer, sustained rally, Bitcoin would need to clear one of the local highs, the nearest sitting in the $82,000 region.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin’s sell walls stand between price and a rally<\/h2>\n

The two analysts stay split on Bitcoin’s near- and long-term path, but liquidity will do much to determine where price heads next.<\/p>\n

A recent AMBCrypto report flagged<\/a> the question of whether Bitcoin can sustain its upward run, as a growing sell wall builds across the $64,000 to $65,000 region.<\/p>\n

Liquidation data marks those sell walls as a critical hurdle, and Bitcoin must clear the $65,000 level convincingly for any sustained rally to hold.<\/p>\n

\n

Final Summary<\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Joao Wedson sees Bitcoin’s bull market roughly two months out, with cycle patterns pointing to an October bottom.<\/em><\/li>\n
  • FrankAFetter expects a breakout, but BTC must clear the $64,000 to $65,000 sell wall and reclaim $82,000 for any rally to hold.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Bitcoin’s two-month timeline collides with breakout signals.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":622712,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,66,4,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-622705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-new-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nAnalyst: 'Bitcoin's bottom is still 2 months to go from today' - Here's why - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin trades past $65K, but cycle patterns point to an October bottom while short-term holders hint the odds could bend.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/analyst-bitcoins-bottom-is-still-2-months-to-go-from-today-heres-why\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Analyst: 'Bitcoin's bottom is still 2 months to go from today' - 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