{"id":617197,"date":"2026-07-18T08:00:58","date_gmt":"2026-07-18T12:00:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=617197"},"modified":"2026-07-18T06:05:49","modified_gmt":"2026-07-18T10:05:49","slug":"mapping-bitcoins-path-to-100k-as-demand-sends-mixed-signals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/mapping-bitcoins-path-to-100k-as-demand-sends-mixed-signals\/","title":{"rendered":"Mapping Bitcoin\u2019s path to $100K as demand sends mixed signals"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been negative for 60 days in a row since the 19th of May, which has put a lot of pressure on Bitcoin right now. <\/span><\/p>\n

As per CoinGlass’s most recent reading, the index has experienced the longest streak on record, reaching -0.1025%. This indicates that Bitcoin has been trading at a lower price on Coinbase than on Binance for the past two months. <\/span><\/p>\n

What does this mean for Bitcoin?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

Such a long streak was last seen between the 16th of January and the 24th of February, which lasted approximately 40 days. That was followed by a notable 30-day period around the market crash on the 11th of October.
\n.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Coinbase<\/a>
Source: CoinGlass<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

That said, such prolonged negative readings are concerning as they have historically corresponded with times when ETF outflows have occurred.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This comes as the price of Bitcoin<\/a> increased by 1.8% over the previous day, trading at $63,935.02 at press time. <\/span><\/p>\n

However, the drop from $76,954 last seen on 19th May raises concerns. The RSI and MACD indicators further suggested that despite the hike, the bulls were not strong enough.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: Trading View<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In contrast, during the same time period, the Bitcoin ETF saw maximum outflows. However, with net inflows of $197 million from 6th to 10th July, the ETFs managed to end the eight-week outflow trend<\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/a>
Source: SoSo Value<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Bitcoin’s risk index provides an interesting nuance<\/span><\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, this year, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and the Bitcoin Risk Index have been very similar. With less appetite for risky assets and tighter liquidity, Bitcoin entered a risk-off phase as the dollar gained strength.<\/span><\/p>\n

The only significant rebound of the year occurred when the DXY declined, resulting in a more advantageous environment. Naturally, one of the main macro headwinds for Bitcoin may be abating now that the dollar is losing ground and the Bitcoin Risk Index is cooling.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"BTC<\/a>
Source: Swissblock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

However, analysts predict that the cycle bottom will form over the next few months rather than right away.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"$BTC<\/a>
Source: Ted\/X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Similar to this, another analyst says that Bitcoin’s failure to hold the $64,000 support level validates their prediction of additional declines.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Layah<\/a>
Source: Layah Heilpern\/X<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Is $100k possible?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Nonetheless, Kalshi traders gave Bitcoin a 10% chance of reaching $100,000 before year-end.<\/p>\n

This marked the event\u2019s lowest implied probability on record. It suggested traders saw only a one-in-ten chance of that outcome.<\/p>\n

\"Will<\/a>
Source: Kalshi<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the same time, Fidelity Research<\/a> analyst Zack Wainwright believes that a larger portion of the circulating supply is being held by investors with strong convictions rather than active traders.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, over 40% of this supply of long-term holders is underwater, which means that they were purchased at prices higher than the current market value of Bitcoin and are now sitting at unrealized losses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Final Summary <\/span><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Though Bitcoin has seen a hike in the past 24 hours, it has dropped from $76k to $63k from 19th May to press time.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Many analysts believe that Bitcoin is starting to form a bottom, and further declines are expected.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    With ETFs finally shifting to inflows, will Bitcoin recover from its long-stretched slump?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":617212,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,66,4,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-617197","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-new-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMapping Bitcoin\u2019s path to $100K as demand sends mixed signals - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Given that the dollar is declining and the Bitcoin Risk Index is cooling, one of the primary macro headwinds for Bitcoin may be lessening.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/mapping-bitcoins-path-to-100k-as-demand-sends-mixed-signals\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mapping Bitcoin\u2019s path to $100K as demand sends mixed signals - 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