{"id":616608,"date":"2026-07-16T14:00:50","date_gmt":"2026-07-16T18:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=616608"},"modified":"2026-07-16T06:24:32","modified_gmt":"2026-07-16T10:24:32","slug":"bitcoin-rallies-to-65k-but-long-term-holders-send-a-warning-sign","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-rallies-to-65k-but-long-term-holders-send-a-warning-sign\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin rallies to $65K, but long-term holders send a warning sign"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For the current macro-driven rally to turn into a bull rally, investor conviction will be the key factor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From the macro perspective, Bitcoin\u2019s reclaim of the $65k level came alongside a softer-than-expected CPI report, signaling that inflation is cooling. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Historically, this type of macro relief has acted as a bullish catalyst, as investors, particularly long-term holders, begin to position for easier monetary conditions. With CPI coming in weaker, Bitcoin\u2019s rally clearly highlighted this shift in market sentiment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, on-chain data suggests that long-term holders are still struggling to maintain their conviction. As BTC pushes toward $66k, LTH realized loss volume is rising sharply. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This indicates that cycle-top buyers are using the relief rally as an exit opportunity, selling into strength instead of waiting for a full recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_616620\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-616620\" style=\"width: 680px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-616620 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1.png 680w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1-640x360.png 640w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1-320x180.png 320w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/2-1-160x90.png 160w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-616620\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adding to the pressure, Glassnode recently highlighted another key signal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/glassnode\/status\/2077447253581615455\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">report<\/a>, <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">short-term holders who bought near the recent lows are now taking profit at volumes last seen around the May peak. <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Together, these two forces are creating resistance for Bitcoin\u2019s rally: Cycle-top buyers are reducing losses, while local-bottom buyers are locking in gains. With both groups selling into the same recovery, Bitcoin clearly needs stronger demand to absorb the supply.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">What&#8217;s more, rising speculative liquidity around these key zones is fueling more friction for the rally. In short, it looks like <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/coins\/bitcoin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a> is entering a high-stakes setup at a time when conviction is starting to fade.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Naturally, the question becomes: Is BTC\u2019s $65k breakout the start of a bull trend, or just another relief rally?<\/span><\/p>\n<h2><b>Bitcoin\u2019s post-CPI rally faces a conviction test<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">After three straight quarters of downtrend, the CPI report clearly helped trigger a risk-on move.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is up over 9% so far in Q3, marking its first green quarter after averaging nearly 20% losses across the previous three quarters. Against this backdrop, rising profit-taking is expected, as short-term holders look to secure gains after the strong recovery.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> However, long-term hodlers realizing losses shows that this cohort is still not viewing BTC\u2019s recovery as the start of a new trend. Instead of \u201cbuying the dip,\u201d some are using the bounce to reduce exposure.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Notably, this setup is now playing out on-chain as well. Bitcoin spot ETF volume has collapsed 78% from its peak, with daily volume dropping to $1.2 billion versus $4.4 billion at the top.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> This decline suggests that ETF-driven demand has cooled, leaving the market with weaker liquidity as BTC attempts to sustain its recovery.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_616643\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-616643\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-616643 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4.png\" alt=\"btc\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4.png 1280w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-960x540.png 960w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-640x360.png 640w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-320x180.png 320w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-160x90.png 160w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/4-4-1200x675.png 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-616643\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In essence, Bitcoin\u2019s current setup highlights a growing demand-supply imbalance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">While selling pressure continues to rise, buyers have not stepped in strongly enough to absorb the supply, especially as LTHs typically act as a key source of demand during market dips.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> Without stronger accumulation from this cohort, BTC\u2019s consolidation around $65k risks turning into a bull trap rather than the start of a sustained breakout.<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><strong>Final Summary<\/strong><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li data-section-id=\"4dkkb3\" data-start=\"0\" data-end=\"114\"><em>Bitcoin\u2019s $65k rally faces a key test as long-term holders sell into the recovery instead of buying the dip.<\/em><\/li>\n<li data-section-id=\"14tff8t\" data-start=\"116\" data-end=\"239\" data-is-last-node=\"\"><em>ETF demand has slowed, while selling pressure rises, creating a risk that BTC\u2019s breakout could turn into a bull trap.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Weak trading volume raises questions over whether the post-CPI rally can continue.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":113,"featured_media":616764,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,66,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-616608","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-new-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - 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