{"id":611382,"date":"2026-06-25T13:30:53","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T17:30:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=611382"},"modified":"2026-06-25T11:22:43","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T15:22:43","slug":"bitcoins-cycle-is-evolving-but-not-broken-inside-21shares-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoins-cycle-is-evolving-but-not-broken-inside-21shares-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin\u2019s cycle is ‘evolving, but not broken’ \u2013 Inside 21Shares’ analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"

21Shares released its latest report, “State of Crypto”, arguing that Bitcoin [BTC] has not broken away from its traditional four-year market cycle.<\/p>\n

The report noted that many analysts believed the cycle had ended at the start of 2026. However, Bitcoin’s price action has continued to closely resemble previous post-halving cycles.<\/p>\n

Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a sharp correction. Since then, its trajectory has largely mirrored earlier market cycles.<\/p>\n

Is the Bitcoin cycle broken yet?\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n

The authors stress<\/a>, however, that this does not totally refute the notion that the market has changed.<\/span><\/p>\n

They said,<\/p>\n

Bitcoin\u2019s cycle is evolving, but it has not broken yet.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\"Bitcoin's<\/a>
Source: 21Shares<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Therefore, the current 50% decline is much less severe than the 80% to 90% drawdowns that have occurred in past bear markets. Another key difference is that,<\/span><\/p>\n

Notably, bitcoin has also, so far, avoided the outright capitulation that defined earlier downturns\u2014it has not yet traded below its aggregate cost basis of $54,000.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

If the market stays above this level, it indicates that it has not yet entered the widespread panic-selling phase, which has historically signaled the bottom of bear cycles.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mixed sentiment might confuse investors<\/span><\/h2>\n

The report argued that stronger fundamentals do not make Bitcoin immune to market cycles. Investor sentiment, it said, remains heavily influenced by broader macroeconomic conditions.<\/p>\n

Even so, 21Shares projected that Bitcoin could recover toward $100,000 by the end of 2026.<\/p>\n

That outlook aligned with AMBCrypto’s analysis<\/a>, which suggested Bitcoin could rebound toward $65,460 if bullish momentum strengthens.<\/p>\n

But the ETF market is showing signs of stress, with outflows of $2.92 billion in June 2026 and $2.34 billion in May. Even though March and April saw billions in inflows, only outflows occurred in January and February.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is the SOPR ratio hinting at?<\/span><\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, the LTH\/STH SOPR ratio, which contrasts the profits made by long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), has been below 1 for the most part (with sporadic spikes above 1) and has recently fallen to about 0.7.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Bitcoin<\/a>
Source: CryptoQuant<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

While seasoned investors continue to exhibit conviction, the most recent reading suggests that short-term holders responding to recent price volatility are the main source of selling pressure. <\/span><\/p>\n

Additionally, the most recent Bitfinex Alpha report indicates that market makers’ net gamma exposure has turned negative.<\/a> This happens as Bitcoin was trading below the gamma flip level of roughly $68,000\u2013$70,000. It is more likely that volatility will be elevated in this setting because dealers’ hedging activity tends to intensify rather than stabilize price swings.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Final Summary\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n
    \n
  • Following $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant decline in value.<\/span><\/em><\/li>\n
  • Short-term investor caution remains, but institutional adoption of Bitcoin is still strengthening its fundamentals.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Bitcoin has reached a turning point due to a 50% correction, increasing ETF withdrawals, and negative gamma.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":611454,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,66,4,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-611382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-new-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBitcoin\u2019s cycle is 'evolving, but not broken' \u2013 Inside 21Shares' analysis - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The long-term outlook for Bitcoin is still positive, but the most recent options and on-chain metrics indicate a bumpy future.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoins-cycle-is-evolving-but-not-broken-inside-21shares-analysis\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s cycle is 'evolving, but not broken' \u2013 Inside 21Shares' analysis - 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