![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-Funding-Rate-scaled.png\")
<\/a>The negative funding rates in February reinforced the idea that bears retained control of the market. Market sentiment was weak, and price bounces have been sold off.<\/p>\n
Solving the diverging Bitcoin cycle indicators<\/strong><\/h2>\nCrypto analyst Axel Adler Jr pointed out the anomalous MVRV-Z score<\/a>. This metric measures the normalized deviation of market capitalization from realized capitalization. Negative values signal the market price was under the on-chain “fair value price”.<\/p>\n![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-MVRV-Z-Score.png\")
<\/a>Source: Axel Adler Jr Insights<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nAt the time of writing, the MVRV Z-score was at -2.28, having dropped to a local minimum of -3.38 on the 5th of February. For context, the December 2018 bottom saw scores of around -1.6. It was -1.4 in November 2022.<\/p>\n
The analyst concluded that the market is in a statistically unusual compression zone relative to realized capitalization. The reason behind this could be the advent of ETFs. This has raised the network’s cost basis, helping explain the Z-score extremes.<\/p>\n![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-NUPL-1.png\")
<\/a>Source: Axel Adler Jr Insights<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nAt the same time that the MVRV Z-score made historic lows, the Bitcoin<\/a> NUPL was at 0.197. It was in the market sentiment zone labeled “hope”. A drop below 0 is generally needed to mark cycle bottoms.<\/p>\nAMBCrypto had warned of the same thing in an earlier report. The market capitulation<\/a> was not yet in sight, and could take months to materialize.<\/p>\n![\"Bitcoin](\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Bitcoin-LTH-MVRV-scaled.png\")
<\/a>Source: Glassnode<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\nAnother metric to keep an eye on is the long-term holder MVRV. It takes into account only the BTC that is older (specifically, UTXO lifespan) than 155 days. A reading of under 1 implies even this cohort is, on average, underwater.<\/p>\n
At press time, the LTH MVRV is 1.61. Combined with the short-term bearish pressure, there is a genuine threat of a BTC price move to $60k. A drop below these lows could lead to an intense wave of selling, or capitulation.<\/p>\n
\nFinal Summary<\/h2>\n\n- The MVRV Z-score mathematically underscored that BTC was historically undervalued, but other onchain metrics hinted at further downside.<\/em><\/li>\n
- Bitcoin long-term investors can aim to remain sidelined for a capitulation event before looking to slowly re-enter.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
The MVRV Z-score reached -3.38 in the first week of February. The previous two cycle bottoms saw readings of -1.6 and -1.4, respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":574677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-574600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
Undervalued but structurally weak: Bitcoin\u2019s current cycle paradox - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The extremely low values that the normalized deviation of the Bitcoin MVRV made in February were an anomaly compared to previous cycles.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/undervalued-but-structurally-weak-bitcoins-current-cycle-paradox\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Undervalued but structurally weak: Bitcoin\u2019s current cycle paradox - AMBCrypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The MVRV Z-score reached -3.38 in the first week of February. 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<\/a>At the time of writing, the MVRV Z-score was at -2.28, having dropped to a local minimum of -3.38 on the 5th of February. For context, the December 2018 bottom saw scores of around -1.6. It was -1.4 in November 2022.<\/p>\n
The analyst concluded that the market is in a statistically unusual compression zone relative to realized capitalization. The reason behind this could be the advent of ETFs. This has raised the network’s cost basis, helping explain the Z-score extremes.<\/p>\n At the same time that the MVRV Z-score made historic lows, the Bitcoin<\/a> NUPL was at 0.197. It was in the market sentiment zone labeled “hope”. A drop below 0 is generally needed to mark cycle bottoms.<\/p>\n AMBCrypto had warned of the same thing in an earlier report. The market capitulation<\/a> was not yet in sight, and could take months to materialize.<\/p>\n Another metric to keep an eye on is the long-term holder MVRV. It takes into account only the BTC that is older (specifically, UTXO lifespan) than 155 days. A reading of under 1 implies even this cohort is, on average, underwater.<\/p>\n At press time, the LTH MVRV is 1.61. Combined with the short-term bearish pressure, there is a genuine threat of a BTC price move to $60k. A drop below these lows could lead to an intense wave of selling, or capitulation.<\/p>\n The MVRV Z-score reached -3.38 in the first week of February. The previous two cycle bottoms saw readings of -1.6 and -1.4, respectively.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":57,"featured_media":574677,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-574600","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<\/a><\/a>
\nFinal Summary<\/h2>\n
\n