{"id":560669,"date":"2026-01-12T12:30:36","date_gmt":"2026-01-12T07:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=560669"},"modified":"2026-01-12T12:10:30","modified_gmt":"2026-01-12T06:40:30","slug":"bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin nears THIS rare setup as super-cycle talk surfaces &#8211; BTC can rally IF&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Despite being nearly 30% down from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors enthusiastic about the possibility of a rebound.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"803\" data-end=\"1164\">The asset, trading at $92,231 at the time of this press, sat in a critical zone that continues to fuel the bulls-versus-bears debate.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"102\" data-end=\"370\">Traders widely view this level as a tipping point that could either drive a renewed rally toward $100,000 or trigger a pullback into the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now offer clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"1245\" data-end=\"1295\"><strong>Can the one-year change signal the next rally?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"1297\" data-end=\"1445\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/bitcoin-price-prediction\">Bitcoin\u2019s [BTC]<\/a> one-year performance change has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1447\" data-end=\"1570\">At press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1572\" data-end=\"1803\">This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin\u2019s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_560678\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-560678\" style=\"width: 2560px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-560678\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg\" alt=\"Bitcoin year over year change.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg 2560w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-1536x864.jpeg 1536w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-2048x1152.jpeg 2048w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-1200x675.jpeg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-560678\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Alphractal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-start=\"1805\" data-end=\"2028\">To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2030\" data-end=\"2240\">While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2242\" data-end=\"2396\">However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"2584\" data-end=\"2641\"><strong>Is the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"2643\" data-end=\"2801\">A sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2803\" data-end=\"2948\">Other technical factors will also play a key role.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2803\" data-end=\"2948\">One of these is Bitcoin\u2019s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2950\" data-end=\"3137\">This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_560679\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-560679\" style=\"width: 1316px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-560679\" src=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg\" alt=\"Bitcoin 2 year SMA.\" width=\"1316\" height=\"740\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg 1316w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB-300x169.jpeg 300w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB-1024x576.jpeg 1024w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB-768x432.jpeg 768w, https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB-1200x675.jpeg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1316px) 100vw, 1316px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-560679\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Alphractal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p data-start=\"235\" data-end=\"397\">An analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s Liquidation Heatmap <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coinglass.com\/pro\/futures\/LiquidationMap\">revealed<\/a> how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"404\" data-end=\"710\">At press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"404\" data-end=\"710\">However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3722\" data-end=\"3934\">These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3936\" data-end=\"4082\">If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.<\/p>\n<h2 data-start=\"4084\" data-end=\"4113\"><strong>Sentiment remains bullish<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p data-start=\"4115\" data-end=\"4191\">Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4193\" data-end=\"4400\">Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4402\" data-end=\"4624\">While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4626\" data-end=\"4681\">He wrote,<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"4626\" data-end=\"4681\">\u201cI could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-start=\"4683\" data-end=\"4882\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/czs-super-cycle-prediction-is-bitcoin-breaking-its-4-year-cycle\/\">Zhao attributed part of his outlook to recent developments in the United States<\/a>, including the removal of crypto from certain risk classifications, which he views as a positive signal for the sector.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"4884\" data-end=\"5085\">Although speculative, the prospect of a super cycle could push Bitcoin back toward its all-time high and support the rare historical pattern where a brief negative yearly change precedes a major rally.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Final Thoughts<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Bitcoin\u2019s one-year percentage change is showing a similar pattern to the setup that kickstarted the multi-month bull run that extended into 2025.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>The two-year support level remains a key zone in determining whether bulls or bears will take control, with some analysts already calling for a potential \u201csuper cycle.\u201d<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<hr \/>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bitcoin could be ripe for a major rally similar to the 2021 upswing &#8211; one that attracted billions of dollars in capital.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":101,"featured_media":560684,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[6427],"class_list":["post-560669","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.0 (Yoast SEO v28.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Bitcoin nears THIS rare setup as super-cycle talk surfaces - BTC can rally IF... - AMBCrypto<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bitcoin\u2019s rare 1-year pattern, key support levels and bullish sentiment are fueling expectations of a potential rally toward $100K.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-image-preview:large\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Bitcoin nears THIS rare setup as super-cycle talk surfaces - BTC can rally IF... - AMBCrypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bitcoin could be ripe for a major rally similar to the 2021 upswing - one that attracted billions of dollars in capital.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"AMBCrypto\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/cryptoamb\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-01-12T07:00:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Abdul-68.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Olayiwola Dolapo\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@https:\/\/x.com\/dolapolai\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@CryptoAmb\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Olayiwola Dolapo\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"ReportageNewsArticle\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/bitcoin-nears-this-rare-setup-as-super-cycle-talk-surfaces-btc-can-rally-if\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Olayiwola Dolapo\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/ambcrypto.com\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/8e172c81209a80a8325f773bd6447a30\"},\"headline\":\"Bitcoin nears THIS rare setup as super-cycle talk surfaces &#8211; 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