{"id":552770,"date":"2025-12-11T10:30:19","date_gmt":"2025-12-11T05:00:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/?p=552770"},"modified":"2025-12-11T09:50:55","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T04:20:55","slug":"bitcoin-standard-chartereds-revised-projection-and-why-this-is-no-longer-a-price-driver","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/bitcoin-standard-chartereds-revised-projection-and-why-this-is-no-longer-a-price-driver\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin &#8211; Standard Chartered&#8217;s revised projection and why THIS is &#8216;no longer a price driver&#8217;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-path-to-node=\"4\">Standard Chartered<span class=\"\">,<\/span><span class=\"\"> the multinational banking giant, is in the news today after it<\/span><span class=\"\"> significantly revised its price forecast for Bitcoin. In fact, it <\/span><span class=\"\">dramatically cut its 2025 projection in half.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"4\"><span class=\"\">This revision comes on the back of BTC&#8217;s recent struggles on the price charts, following an eye-opening performance in the final quarter of 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"4\">Standard Chartered&#8217;s Bitcoin prediction<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"5\"><span class=\"\">The bank now believes that Bitcoin will reach <\/span>$100,000 by the close of 2025- A <span class=\"\">\u00a0steep reduction from its previous target of $200,<\/span><span class=\"\">000. <\/span><span class=\"\">Additionally,<\/span><span class=\"\"> the long-term forecast of $500,<\/span><span class=\"\">000 has been delayed,<\/span><span class=\"\"> with the bank moving the timeline from 2028 to 2030.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"5\"><span class=\"\">This may be a sign of analysts now looking at BTC&#8217;s short and long-term targets through the prism of caution.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"6\"><span class=\"\">With <a href=\"https:\/\/ambcrypto.com\/predictions\/bitcoin-price-prediction\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin [BTC]<\/a>\u00a0trading near <\/span>$90,000 at press time<span class=\"\">,<\/span><span class=\"\"> the crypto is now stuck in a tight trading band. In fact, some analysts are also noting<\/span><span class=\"\"> a scarcity of immediate catalysts powerful enough to push the price significantly higher.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"7\">Institutional buying fails to meet high expectations<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"8\"><span class=\"\">The primary driver behind this downward adjustment,<\/span><span class=\"\"> according to Standard Chartered analyst <\/span>Geoffrey Kendrick<span class=\"\">,<\/span><span class=\"\"> is a fundamental reassessment of the expected demand sources that were projected to propel Bitcoin to record highs.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\">Kendrick highlighted two major forces driving the recalibration.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\">First is corporate treasury exhaustion &#8211; The intense wave of corporate Bitcoin accumulation that defined 2024, led most prominently by Strategy, has largely run its course. This buying frenzy once acted as a powerful price floor for Bitcoin. However, with these treasuries now pausing or slowing their purchases, a critical source of market support has faded.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\">Second is the sharp deceleration in ETF inflows. While Spot Bitcoin ETFs were expected to fuel sustained institutional demand, their adoption has been meaningfully slower than early analyst projections.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\">The capital streaming into these vehicles has cooled down, falling well below the aggressive inflow models forecast at launch.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"9\">Together, these factors imply that two of the strongest structural demand engines for Bitcoin are no longer firing at full strength. This has forced analysts to reassess expectations for near-term price momentum.<\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"11\">What are datasets telling us?<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"12\"><span class=\"\">The aforementioned slowdown is evident when the datasets are looked at too. For instance &#8211;<\/span><span class=\"\"> Quarterly inflows into Bitcoin ETFs stand at only around <\/span>50,000 coins right now.<\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"12\"><span class=\"\"> This figure represents the weakest performance since these products were launched in the U.<\/span><span class=\"\">S. It<\/span><span class=\"\">\u00a0is a steep drop from the nearly <\/span>450,000 BTC per quarter<span class=\"\"> that was being purchased by combined corporate treasuries and ETFs in late 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"13\"><span class=\"\">Kendrick\u2019s analysis now suggests that future price appreciation will rely almost <\/span>entirely on ETF-related buying<span class=\"\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"15\"><span class=\"\">Adding another layer of complexity is the potential impact of <\/span>Federal Reserve<span class=\"\"> policy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"15\"><span class=\"\">While investors anticipate a near-term interest rate reduction,<\/span><span class=\"\"> the forward guidance on monetary policy for the coming year is the more critical element.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 data-path-to-node=\"17\">Rejecting the traditional halving cycle<\/h2>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\"><span class=\"\">Finally,<\/span><span class=\"\"> Standard Chartered&#8217;s new forecast <\/span>explicitly moves away<span class=\"\"> from the historic &#8220;halving cycle&#8221; models that have long been the standard for Bitcoin price analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/matthew_sigel\/status\/1998378037964931309\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">According<\/a> to Matthew Sigel,<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\">&#8220;With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic in previous cycles (when US ETFs did not exist) \u2013 i.e., prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and decline thereafter \u2013 is no longer valid, in our view.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\">Sigel added,<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\">&#8220;However, it will take a break of the current all-time high (USD 126,000 on 6 October 2025) to prove that; we expect this to happen in H1-2026.&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p data-path-to-node=\"18\"><span class=\"\">According to Kendrick, the historical boom-and-bust patterns are no longer applicable to the current,<\/span><span class=\"\"> maturing market.<\/span><span class=\"\"> Severe downturns, the so-called &#8220;crypto winters,&#8221; may be obsolete, he added.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2>Final thoughts<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li><em>The bank now sees ETF inflows, not corporate treasuries, as the only meaningful driver of BTC\u2019s next leg up.<\/em><\/li>\n<li><em>Despite the revised forecast, Standard Chartered still rejects the classic halving-cycle boom-and-bust model.<\/em><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The market appears to be entering a stabilization phase, not a collapse.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":552772,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35,360,66,3,4,20],"tags":[6427,6425],"class_list":["post-552770","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin-news","category-btc-trading-view","category-new-news","category-news","category-social","category-trading-view","tag-ambcrypto","tag-featured"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.5 (Yoast SEO v28.5) - 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